485
FXUS64 KSJT 010715
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
215 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Will let the Heat Advisory die at 7 PM this evening, although it
may only be a brief lull of a day or two. Trend that stated
yesterday continue into this afternoon with temperatures peaking
more in the 97 to 102 range with heat index values generally
100-105. Short term blends and raw model data suggest something
very similar for tomorrow, with dewpoints falling in the afternoon
fast enough to keep heat index below criteria. Hotter temperatures
will return for Tuesday so it will likely be only a 1 day
reprieve.

Winds dropped off enough to allow lows in the some locations to
drop down into the lower 70s and that will likely happen again
tonight in some areas. Most areas wont be quite that lucky and
still see lows in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

An upper level ridge centered across the southeast U.S. will
dominate the weather across West Central Texas through at least
Thursday. This will result in above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Highs on Tuesday will likely be near or exceed Heat
Advisory criteria for much of the Concho Valley and Big Country,
with highs between 103 and 106. Elsewhere, expect highs between 100
and 103. More of the same for Wednesday, although highs should be a
degree or two less hot. Highs on Thursday, Fourth of July, will
be in the upper 90s to near 104.

On Friday, the aforementioned upper level ridge shifts a bit farther
east, while an upper level trough tracks across the Northern and
Central Plains. This will send a cold front south into West
Central Texas late Friday into Saturday. The front may be a focus
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday
into Saturday. For now, PoPs were kept in the slight chance to
chance category. Highs Friday and Saturday will be several degrees
cooler than what is expected earlier in the week. Expect highs in
the mid 90s to near 100.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Some
scattered clouds at around 2000ft are possible around sunrise this
morning. Otherwise, southerly winds will increase this morning and
become gusty this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    101  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 103  77 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   100  74 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 102  77 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       98  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       98  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...SK