212
FXUS64 KSJT 041912
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
212 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Today is another hot day across West Central Texas. As of 1 pm,
temperatures are close to the same as they were 24 hours ago.
Heat Index values are forecast to reach around 100 to 107, with
the hottest conditions occurring over most of the Concho Valley
and Big Country where a Heat Advisory continues until 8 pm
tonight. Visible satellite shows sunny skies across our region,
while thunderstorms have developed down in Far West Texas/Big
Bend. Those storms should stay west of our forecast area today.
Meanwhile, to our north, a cold front is making its way down
through the TX Panhandle/Red River region. Some showers and storms
may develop along the front this afternoon/early this evening,
but hi-res models indicate that any activity will dissipate before
reaching our northern counties. Expect another warm night, with
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The front will move through West Central Texas during the day
Friday, reaching the I-20 corridor by around noon, and the I-10
corridor by around 7 pm. The combination of day-time instability,
moisture (precipitable water values of 1.8+ inches in the vicinity
of the front), and lift from the front will cause scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours, with
highest chances across the central and northern parts of the
forecast area. Although severe thunderstorms are not expected with
this activity, severe downbursts can never really be ruled out
in strong Summertime thunderstorms. The high precipitable waters
will result in storms being efficient rainfall producers,
resulting in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For high
temperatures Friday, it`ll be cooler to the north where the cold
front will move through earlier (upper 80s to low 90s) and warmer
south of I-20 (mid to upper 90s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Rain chances will continue on Friday, along with cooler temperatures
as the cold front moves south through most of the area during the
day. Coolest temperatures will be across the Big Country, with
afternoon highs only in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Temperatures will be warmer farther south prior to the front
moving through, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Our area will
remain in northwest flow aloft over the weekend, with rain
chances persisting into Saturday, as minor disturbances move
through aloft. Temperatures look to be near to slightly below
normal on Saturday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
Sunday is expected to be dry and a bit warmer, with highs in the
mid and upper 90s.

An unsettled pattern will persist across the region as we head
into next week, with the focus turning to the eventual track and
potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The latest NHC track takes
Beryl into Mexico just south of Texas by early Monday morning and
then lifts it farther north into south Texas by early Tuesday
morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty where the
remnants of Beryl will track, which will have a significant effect
on rainfall potential and amounts across the area as we head into
next week. Despite the uncertainty of Beryl, we will remain in
northwest flow aloft next week, with the upper ridge positioned
over the western states. This pattern will support low end rain
chances and cooler temperatures across the area through Thursday,
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

SCT to BKN CIGS at around 1500-2500 FT AGL between the 10Z to 16Z
Fri time-frame may cause MVFR conditions across the Big Country.
Confidence is too low to put BKN MVFR CIGS into 18Z ABI TAF at
the moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through 18Z Fri. S
to SE winds of 8-12 KT will continue through 01Z Fri, with wind
speeds then lowering to around 4-8 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  90  71  90 /  10  50  30  30
San Angelo  77  98  74  95 /   0  40  30  40
Junction    74  99  74  95 /   0  20  20  30
Brownwood   76  93  72  90 /  10  50  20  30
Sweetwater  75  89  71  92 /  10  50  30  30
Ozona       75  97  73  95 /   0  20  20  20
Brady       75  95  73  91 /   0  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SJH