194
FXUS64 KSJT 081657
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1157 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Added isolated shower and thunderstorms to southern sections today,
in association with the cold front. Also MCS in the Permian Basin
may move southeast into Crockett county in NW flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms that developed across the
area last night have pretty much dissipated. Meanwhile, Hurricane
Beryl has made landfall this morning near Matagorda Bay. Regional
radar mosaic shows a far western band of showers displaced from
the core of the hurricane moving westward toward San Saba County.
Have a slight chance of PoPs there this morning to account for
this activity. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area
this morning. Northerly flow at the surface will be reinforced as
the remnants of Beryl pass us by to the east. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon with numerous outflow boundaries in place. Hi res
guidance, however, isn`t particularly bullish on convective
development later today so overall confidence in widespread
shower and storm activity is low. Otherwise, temperatures should
be cooler compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid 80s
in the Big Country to the lower to mid 90s across the western
Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Main upper level ridge will remain parked across the western US
through much of the upcoming week, only slowly drifting a little
farther east By late week and into the weekend. Upper level trough
axis and the remnants of Beryl will be off to the east, so upper
level support for any convection will be a little limited. Still,
plenty of moisture in place in an area far enough away from the
center of the ridge that capping will be limited as well. Expect
storms to develop along any residual boundaries through Friday,
with the best chances across the I-10 corridor east into the Hill
Country. Otherwise, after the slightly cooler conditions today,
temperatures will begin to inch up on Tuesday and then start to
approach the 100 degree mark across portions of the area by the
weekend. Give the ridge axis location expected for the weekend
(centered across Utah and Colorado), areas across the Big Country
likely to be the favored area for the hottest temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Scattered MVFR ceiling will become VFR around 18Z today. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be too sparse to
included in terminals. Northeast winds may gust to 18 KTS this
afternoon behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  68  92  70 /  30  10   0   0
San Angelo  93  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  10
Junction    91  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
Brownwood   87  68  93  68 /  30   0   0   0
Sweetwater  85  69  93  71 /  30  10  10   0
Ozona       93  71  91  70 /  20  30  30  10
Brady       88  70  92  71 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04