814
FXUS64 KSJT 071900
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
200 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Quieter weather is expected today for our area compared to the
last couple of days. Upper level ridging will nudge in from the
west as Tropical Storm Beryl approaches the middle Texas coast.
With the shortwave ridging overhead this afternoon, expect mostly
sunny and hot conditions. Highs will climb into the upper 90s to
around 102 degrees across the Big Country, western Concho Valley,
and northern Edwards Plateau where 850mb temperatures will be
highest. A cold front will then move into the Big Country
overnight which may lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The forecast continues to call for increased shower and
thunderstorm chances Monday night into Tuesday, as a surface cold
front coinciding with a upper-level shortwave trough tracks
through West Central Texas. Models are keying in on these storms
possibly organizing into an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System)
late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The high-res models
are showing this feature developing during the overnight hours
Monday night into early Tuesday morning, south of a Sterling City
to Brady line, and tracking south to southwestward through
Tuesday evening. The remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its
moisture will stay to our east as it lifts north across east Texas
and the Arklatex region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects
from it. The NBM has continued to trend precipitation chances down
Wednesday into Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers
and storms developing across southern sections during the
afternoon hours. Dry conditions are expected Friday into next
weekend.

Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Tuesday behind the
front and with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances,
with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures
are then expected to trend back upward into the 90s and triple
digits by the end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Skies will be generally clear over the area this afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move or develop into the Big Country from the northwest and
north this evening into tonight. Generally southeast winds this
afternoon will become east tonight. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, in our northern
counties in the morning, and across our northern and central
counties in the afternoon. Winds will become north-northeast
Monday with passage of a cold front. Low cloud development (with
MVFR ceilings) is expected in the early to mid-morning hours
Monday, over our northern and eastern counties. Cloud ceilings
will climb over 3000ft in the 15Z-17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  87  70  91 /  20  30  10  10
San Angelo  71  92  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
Junction    71  92  71  92 /   0  10  30  30
Brownwood   70  88  69  90 /  10  30  10  10
Sweetwater  71  85  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
Ozona       72  95  70  91 /   0  10  30  30
Brady       71  90  71  90 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19