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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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310 FXUS64 KSJT 201844 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 144 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Early this morning skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in the mid 70s. A somewhat humid airmass was in place, characterized by dewpoints in the 60s. A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of the the weather today through tonight. High temperatures this afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from yesterday evening`s thunderstorms, rotating through the upper trough and into the Big Country this afternoon. This, along with the instability, should help to spawn a southward-moving line of thunderstorms around the I-20 corridor this afternoon. The main concerns with this activity will be locally heavy rain, given PWAT values of 1.5-2 inches, but some gusty winds are possible with any storm that develops. Storms should die off by midnight as instability subsides and give way to another mild night in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A more active pattern is will continue across West Central Texas, as the upper-level trough sets up across the area and a series of upper-level disturbances and surface cold fronts traverse the area through the end of next week. This will bring increased rain chances for the 1st half of next week, with some potential for isolated showers lingering across our southern most counties on Thursday and Friday next week. The main impacts will be localized moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding, dangerous lightning, and localized gusty winds around thunderstorms and weak cold fronts passing through the area. Increased cloud cover across the area will likely keep afternoon high temperatures down, particularly Monday and Tuesday, where highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures will warm back into the 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions with southerly winds through tonight. Chances for storms will increase near Abilene and Sweetwater by mid afternoon then around San Angelo and Brady by early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 92 70 82 / 20 50 40 60 San Angelo 74 93 70 85 / 20 60 50 90 Junction 73 94 70 89 / 10 50 20 80 Brownwood 72 92 70 85 / 20 40 40 70 Sweetwater 72 93 70 82 / 30 50 50 70 Ozona 72 91 70 84 / 10 50 40 80 Brady 72 92 70 85 / 10 40 30 80 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...SK