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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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780 FXUS64 KSJT 201916 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Western Central Texas will be wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern Plains. A few embedded disturbances will cause scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region today. As of 2 PM CDT, we already have observed some rain showers developing west of Abilene along and north of I-20. Expect this activity to continue across the region into this evening. As a series of disturbances and boundaries continue to move across the area, expect the coverage to increase overnight tonight into Sunday afternoon. Higher rainfall totals will start to arrive more towards Sunday afternoon as the boundary stalls across the area. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked Sunday in a Marginal Risk (5% chance) for excessive rainfall that leads to flash flooding. This will be the main risk for this portion of the forecast. Rainfall totals near 1" are possible across the I-10 corridor through Sunday afternoon. Additional rainfall is possible during the long term portions of the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 A more active pattern is will continue across West Central Texas, as the upper-level trough sets up across the area and a series of upper-level disturbances and surface cold fronts traverse the area through the end of next week. This will bring increased rain chances for the 1st half of next week, with some potential for isolated showers lingering across our southern most counties on Thursday and Friday next week. The main impacts will be localized moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding, dangerous lightning, and localized gusty winds around thunderstorms and weak cold fronts passing through the area. Increased cloud cover across the area will likely keep afternoon high temperatures down, particularly Monday and Tuesday, where highs are expected to be mainly in the 80s to lower 90s. High temperatures will warm back into the 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley the rest of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions will remain in place throughout the TAF period. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Concho valley this afternoon and evening. The coverage will subsequently increase overnight and into Sunday morning affecting areas further south near the weak frontal boundary. Erratic winds in the vicinity of this activity are possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 73 91 70 / 30 40 50 40 San Angelo 99 73 94 70 / 10 20 70 50 Junction 97 73 94 70 / 0 0 70 20 Brownwood 96 72 91 70 / 10 20 50 40 Sweetwater 99 72 94 70 / 30 30 50 50 Ozona 96 73 91 70 / 10 10 60 40 Brady 95 73 91 70 / 0 10 60 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...41