122
FXUS64 KSJT 070956
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
456 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated to scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
occurring this afternoon over the southern half of our area. The
airmass is moderately unstable and moist (precipitable water values
between 1.6 and 1.9 inches). The main storm hazards are lightning,
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Given the weak steering flow and
slow movement with the convection, heavy rain could cause ponding of
water on roads and result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas.
The showers and storms will dissipate this evening, and skies will
be mostly clear tonight. Per the boundary layer moisture fields,
patchy low cloud development early Sunday morning is anticipated
over some of our southern counties (primarily Sutton and Kimble).
Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s
possible in the Big Country.

Our area will be under rather weak northwest flow aloft tonight and
Sunday. A strong upper level ridge will be over the west coast, and
an upper level trough will be centered over mainly the northern and
central Plains. Wind speeds will be higher on Sunday with increased
surface pressure gradient across our area. South or south-southwest
winds in the morning with slight backing to the south-southeast in
the afternoon. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb thermal ridge
expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter on Sunday.
Highs are expected to be 100-103 degrees in much of the Concho
Valley and Big Country, and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
Expect any rain chances to be north of our area prior to 7 PM
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Precipitation chances will continue Monday into Tuesday as
another cold front moves into the area from the north. The
front, along with a shortwave trough clipping the area will
allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Will maintain low POPs during this time frame. The
remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl and its moisture will stay
to our east as it lifts north across east Texas and the Arklatex
region on Tuesday, so not expecting any effects from it. The NBM
has continued to trend precipitation chances down Wednesday into
Thursday, although cannot rule out a few showers and storms
developing across southerm sections during the afternoon hours.
Dry conditions are expected Friday into next weekend.

Temperatures across the area will be cooler for Monday and
Tuesday after the passage of the cold front, with highs ranging
from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures are then expected to
climb back into the 90s and triple digits by the end of the week
and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
generally be out of the south overnight and in the morning before
becoming turning out of the east-southeast in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     98  70  88  68 /  10  20  30  20
San Angelo 101  71  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
Junction    96  72  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
Brownwood   96  71  89  69 /   0  10  30  20
Sweetwater 100  70  88  69 /   0  20  30  20
Ozona       97  72  94  70 /   0   0  10  20
Brady       93  71  89  69 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42