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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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499 FXUS64 KSJT 181921 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 221 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Early this morning, quiet weather across our area, but that will probably change by sunrise. As of 230 AM, one boundary was stalled near the I-10 corridor, with another moving south through the area, with showers developing east of San Angelo. Most of the Hi-Res models continue this activity with scattered thunderstorms developing in the next few hours and lasting through the early afternoon. Most of the this activity will be located along and south of an Mertzon to San Angelo to San Sable line. Again, the severe weather threat is very low, but the storms will produce dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going with a dry forecast from late this afternoon through tonight as conditions will unfavorable for convective development. A little cooler today, with highs in the 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for excessive rainfall (Marginal Risk) on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Area of showers and storms will continue to push south this afternoon. Will clear the last terminal (KSOA) early this afternoon and then leave VFR conditions in its wake. WInds will remain light and generally out of the northeast to east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 20 San Angelo 70 97 71 99 / 0 10 0 30 Junction 71 94 70 96 / 0 10 0 20 Brownwood 69 92 68 95 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 71 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 30 Ozona 70 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 20 Brady 70 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...07