115
FXUS64 KSJT 041724
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The main story today will be the continued hot temperatures across
West Central Texas. An upper level ridge centered across the
Southeast U.S. will continue to result in temperatures well above
seasonal normals. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 PM for
much of the Concho Valley and Big Country, where highs near 105
are forecast. Elsewhere, expect highs in the upper 90s to near
103.

An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Central and
Northern Plains today, sending a cold front into the northern Big
Country this evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
possible along the front, so have included slight chance PoPs this
evening mainly across our northern counties. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the Trans-Pecos region and
Southeast New Mexico this evening, along the western periphery of
the ridge. Most of this activity should remain to our west, but
cannot rule out a few storms sneaking into our far western counties.
Isolated to scattered showers are also possible after midnight,
mainly across the Big Country, as the aforementioned cold front
slowly moves south. Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Rain chances will continue on Friday, along with cooler temperatures
as the cold front moves south through most of the area during the
day. Coolest temperatures will be across the Big Country, with
afternoon highs only in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Temperatures will be warmer farther south prior to the front
moving through, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Our area will
remain in northwest flow aloft over the weekend, with rain
chances persisting into Saturday, as minor disturbances move
through aloft. Temperatures look to be near to slightly below
normal on Saturday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s.
Sunday is expected to be dry and a bit warmer, with highs in the
mid and upper 90s.

An unsettled pattern will persist across the region as we head
into next week, with the focus turning to the eventual track and
potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The latest NHC track takes
Beryl into Mexico just south of Texas by early Monday morning and
then lifts it farther north into south Texas by early Tuesday
morning. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty where the
remnants of Beryl will track, which will have a significant effect
on rainfall potential and amounts across the area as we head into
next week. Despite the uncertainty of Beryl, we will remain in
northwest flow aloft next week, with the upper ridge positioned
over the western states. This pattern will support low end rain
chances and cooler temperatures across the area through Thursday,
with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

SCT to BKN CIGS at around 1500-2500 FT AGL between the 10Z to 16Z
Fri time-frame may cause MVFR conditions across the Big Country.
Confidence is too low to put BKN MVFR CIGS into 18Z ABI TAF at
the moment. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through 18Z Fri. S
to SE winds of 8-12 KT will continue through 01Z Fri, with wind
speeds then lowering to around 4-8 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  90  71  90 /  20  50  30  30
San Angelo  77  98  74  95 /  10  50  30  40
Junction    74  99  74  95 /   0  30  20  30
Brownwood   76  93  72  90 /  10  50  30  30
Sweetwater  76  90  71  92 /  20  50  30  30
Ozona       75  97  73  95 /   0  30  20  20
Brady       75  95  73  91 /   0  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SJH