905
FXUS64 KSJT 022352
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
652 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Expect hot and dry conditions again on Wednesday as an upper level
ridge remains across the area. Will not issue a Heat Advisory for
Wednesday as most of the area will stay below criteria. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for much of the Big Country and Concho
Valley until 7 PM this evening. If you plan to be outside please
follow heat safety rules. Highs on Wednesday be in the upper 90s
to near 105. Expect warm and humid conditions tonight with lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

The main story for the 4th of July holiday weather-wise will
continue to be the heat. Temperatures will be comparable to today
with highs in the upper 90s to around 105, with the warmer
temperatures expected across our western counties. Heat indices may
be a couple degrees warmer with south to southeast winds returning,
keeping the low level moisture more in place, slowing the deep
mixing we`ve seen the past few days. Heat illnesses will still be a
threat so be cautious with any strenuous outdoor activities for the
holiday and try to stay hydrated & cool.

A more unsettled pattern looks to take shape for the weekend. The
strong upper ridge that has been overhead for much of this first
portion of summer is expected to weaken and shift east by the end of
the week. A broad upper trough is expected across the central CONUS
and the breakdown of the ridge will allow a cold front to drop into
our area by Friday. With the boundary expected to linger in our area
Friday and Saturday, we will see increased rain chances across much
of our CWA. Current forecast QPF generally stays between 0.25-0.75
inches with some convectively higher totals possible but totals will
be more dependent on where the boundary actually sets up. Regardless
of totals, temperatures will be much cooler for this timeframe
thanks to increased cloud cover with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s by Saturday.

Lots of uncertainty remains regarding the forecast Sunday through
mid-next week. We will stay in a generally unstable pattern with
weak northwest flow courtesy of the troughing regime to our north.
This keeps rather nebulous slight chance PoPs in the forecast
through mid-next week until the ridge can get re-established.
Temperatures will be right around normal in the 90s areawide. Then
we have Beryl and the uncertainty that that will provide. What Beryl
does after it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend is the main
question we have at this time. As Beryl enters a more unfavorable
shear environment it is expected to gradually weaken into this
weekend. A trend of note is that models that show a stronger system
post-Yucatan have more frequently shown a northward turn in the Gulf
compared to the models showing weaker systems that stay on a more
southerly track into Central Mexico. It`s too early to say which of
these outcomes is more likely at this point but those along the
coast should have a plan in place and pay attention to the
forecasts. If we do see anything in our area from Beryl, it would
likely be in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. While we`re not sure if
we will see any direct impacts from this system, we do want to
highlight that regardless of the track, swells from Beryl are
expected to increase all along the Gulf Coast this weekend,
increasing rip current risks. And being that this weekend is a
holiday weekend, there will likely be lots of visitors from more
inland areas (our CWA included) visiting the beach. It`s these
tourists that tend to see more adverse impacts from rip currents as
they are unaware of their danger due to decreased exposure. If you
plan to take a trip to the Gulf this weekend, swim with caution as
even the most experienced swimmers face difficulty with rip
currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected across all terminals for the next 24
hours. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue through this
evening before diminishing slightly overnight. Gusty winds are
expected to pick back up mid to late Wednesday morning, with gusts
up to 22 kts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76 104  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    74  99  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75 100  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  78 103  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       74  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Concho-Fisher-
Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TP