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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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680 FXUS64 KSHV 170314 CCA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1014 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 949 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Quiet evening across our Four-State area with very little convective debris leftover. Coverage was pretty slim over our south with the sea breeze look and really the lion share occurring over SW AR late today. We even had an an area of damaging winds and potential large hail in Howard Co. Models all remain sparse to none overnight including the HRRR. Our lows look quite persistent in the middle of this "Dog days" heat wave averaging in the upper 70s. Metro areas likely keeping in the low 80s for much if not all of the night. Current readings are ranging from 92 in Downtown SHV and 91 and Texarkana, to right at 80 in a few spots for the coolest. No need to tweak anything here with this pattern locked in for the weekend at least. The best news is there is a chance for more isolated activity with this light NW flow aloft and perhaps even a better coverage chance coming with a backdoor front approaching for the new work week. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 The long term forecast trends will heavily feature the upper level trough over the Great Lakes, which looks to deepen as the ridge to our west amplifies, bringing a very welcome pattern change for the ArkLaTex. Before that transpires, however, Sunday looks to consist of another round of this recent hot, sticky and occasionally unsettled pattern which we are thoroughly tired of experiencing (and writing about). Riding on the same northwest flow as Saturday`s systems, another disturbance looks to organize itself Sunday afternoon and ride southeast out of western Arkansas into the evening and overnight hours. Guidance suggests a secondary spike in precip chances behind the initial wave, continuing possibly towards daybreak Monday, with nearly negligible PoPs remaining into the day Monday. The Day 3 SWO includes the northeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex in a Marginal Risk, and we will be closely monitoring for the potential for severe weather development with these complexes. Sunday afternoon looks to possibly be the hottest of this entire heat wave, with highs exceeding 100 degrees almost entirely across the board, and a few sites taking aim at 103 to 104. As the new work week begins, the eastern extent of the upper level ridge will recede to the west, while the trough to the east deepens further, allowing for what looks like northeasterly flow to backdoor in some more seasonable temperatures, making for some welcome relief after this prolonged heat wave. Guidance shows highs ranging from the upper 90s and lower 100s southwest to the upper 80s and lower 90s northeast, followed by a more seasonable pattern consisting of upper 80s to lower 90s north and lower 90s to middle 90s south continuing through the remainder of the work week, while quiet weather conditions prevail. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 For the 17/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with very isolated convection diminishing with the setting sun this evening. Likewise, cumulus field will also fade as heating is lost with just some convective debris cirrus lingering overnight. Otherwise, look for a returning cu field on Saturday and another chance of isolated convection during the afternoon. However, low confidence precludes any mention of SHRA/TSRA in the current OOZ TAF cycle. Light S/SW winds overnight will increase to between 5-10 kts again on Saturday with higher gusts invof convection. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 101 81 103 / 0 0 10 0 MLU 78 101 79 103 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 75 99 74 102 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 80 101 78 103 / 10 20 20 10 ELD 76 98 76 101 / 20 10 20 10 TYR 80 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 78 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 77 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ149-152-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19