Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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908 FXUS64 KSHV 121548 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1048 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Showers associated with the MCS in southeastern Oklahoma and southwestern Arkansas continue as of the 15Z hour, thus have increased PoPs accordingly. Still expecting this activity to diminish into the early afternoon hours if not sooner, with a slight chances of scattered thunderstorms across our southern zones as the afternoon continues. Temperatures look on track, with the MCS and associated rain and cloud cover keeping temps cooler along and north of I-30, and aiming for the upper 90s elsewhere, especially with this morning`s overcast ac skies beginning to thin out and make for a mostly sunny afternoon. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper-air analysis from this morning continues to show ridging across the southwest CONUS with an area of low pressure across the northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a stalled out frontal boundary just to the south of our area that will gradually lift back through our region as a warm front on Tuesday. Being on the peripheral of the ridge, portions of our northern zones remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft. As was the case last night, another large MCS has developed over northeast Oklahoma and looks to move into portions of our far northern zones later this morning. The main question remains, how far will it get. Right now I have PoPs in for areas along and north of I-30. The MCS Sunday morning did make it to our area but failed to get past I-30 and I don`t see anything that would suggest otherwise this morning. After some minor relief from the heat this past weekend, we begin a warming trend today that will last through the rest of the week. Afternoon temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across our northern zones, that will be more influenced by this incoming MCS and associated cloud cover, while the rest of the region will see temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will climb above 100 degrees, and there was some argument that said we could have put out a Heat Advisory for portions of our eastern zones where these values could reach 105 degrees. That being said, it appears that it will be spotty in nature and we did not have the support of surrounding offices so we have elected to go without one today. Never fear, it looks like the rest of the week will have no problem reaching at least Heat Advisory criteria starting most likely on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 I could go on and on about the set up for the long-term portion of the forecast period. But to save us all some time, ridging is expected to continue to shift eastward and have more of a grip on our region by Tuesday night and really continue well into next weekend. In response to this, afternoon temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday will range from the upper 90s to lower 100s each day across the region, possibly getting slightly warmer each day into the weekend. Sounds amazing right? In addition to that, heat index values will be at or well above the Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees each day. The only real concern for each day of the week will be where we place the Heat Advisory versus the Excessive Heat Warning each day as the location of the hottest heat indices could vary at times. Not much rain to speak of for the long-term portion of the forecast period unfortunately aside from any diurnal convection during the afternoon hours. Long range models do show a potential for some rainfall Sunday into Monday as the ridge looks to retrograde to the west slightly and our area returns to northwest flow aloft. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Another broad complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving into Southeast Oklahoma and will likely affect portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas north of Interstate 30 early in the period. It is still very uncertain how far south the rain will persist. Most of the models suggest the precip will weaken significantly with southward extent during the first few hours of the TAF cycle. However, the convection is quite robust, so VCTS was maintained at KTXK between 12/18z and 12/22z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail with abundant mid level cloud cover and sustained winds remaining below 10 kts. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 79 100 80 / 10 10 10 0 MLU 98 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 DEQ 90 72 98 74 / 50 0 10 0 TXK 95 76 100 78 / 30 0 10 0 ELD 94 73 98 75 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 98 78 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 97 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09