552
FXUS64 KSHV 140752
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
252 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Hot, scorching, sizzling, sweltering, boiling, blistering, fiery,
sultry, scalding....so many different ways to explain the forecast
for this entire week! Temperatures today are going to range from
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Mix in the humidity and our
heat index values will climb above 105 across the region. Because
of this, a widespread Heat Advisory remains in place for the area
today. One thing to note about today is that the HRRR continues to
paint some afternoon convection across portions of southern
Arkansas and north central Louisiana. I was not too keen on the
idea to increase PoPs today, however, we did see some convection
across this same area yesterday so I went ahead and added some 20
PoPs in there for this afternoon.

Mild conditions remain in place for tonight, with lows ranging
from the mid to upper 70s across the area. That being said, some
locations might not reach below 80 as we are still sitting at 85
degrees in Shreveport as of 2:30 AM. The heat will continue for
Thursday with similar conditions in place that we will see today,
afternoon highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees and heat
index values in excess of 105 degrees. We will once again need at
least a Heat Advisory for the entire area on Thursday. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Remember what I said in the short-term portion of the forecast?
Well no relief in the oppressive heat will be found in the long-
term portion of the forecast. You know, every night for the past
couple of night I have looked ahead at the forecast, hoping that
there will be some relief. Unfortunately, every night has led to
disappointment because this smothering heat looks to continue
well into the middle of next week. Highs in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees and heat index values reaching dangerous
levels. The never-ending story of stifling heat.

One thing to note though, there are some rainfall chances in the
long-term period that could bring some very temporary relief to
the heat across different portions of the area. But honestly,
nothing to write home about as the 7-day QPF is very bleak for our
region. The only areas that have anything painted over them are
for portions of our far western zones, but even these are very
low-end amounts. All I can say is try to stay cool by drinking
plenty of water and staying out of the sun during the hottest
parts of the day. Try to beat the heat by sipping on something icy
and pretending you are on a tropical vacation. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites, but some
lower ceilings around 2500 feet may develop and move northward
into East Texas near or just after sunrise. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop after 14/20z across South Central
Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Therefore, a
mention of VCTS was included at KELD and KMLU. Any convection that
does develop will be primarily diurnally-driven and should quickly
dissipate late in the period after sunset.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  99  78 100  79 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
TXK 100  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  98  76  99  77 /  20  10  10   0
TYR  98  78  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  77  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09