946
FXUS64 KSHV 162009
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
309 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Long range guidance through the week has depicted an amplifying of
the upper level ridge over the Rockies, extending its axis north
towards Canada into this weekend, and that does still look to be the
case, but subtle variations in the behavior of the outer reaches of
our omnipresent upper level high may have notable consequences on
ArkLaTex weather in the next day or so.

In a nutshell, the northeastern "side" of the high and associated
ridging looks to contract far enough south and west for its
northwest flow to make a more pronounced effort to funnel some
disturbances into the Four State Region. The first of these may just
graze us from the northeast late overnight tonight, bringing
isolated areas of impacts to our Arkansas counties, but the SPC does
have us outlooked in a Marginal Risk, so intensification of some
storms to severe criteria is not out of the question.

There are far more question marks surrounding tomorrow`s potential
weather, but what can be said at this point is that a weak upper
level shortwave looks to ride the northwest flow tomorrow, kicking
up a potentially organized complex of elevated storms riding south
out of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The latest high
resolution guidance (HRRR, FV3) has these storms coming together
south of Fort Smith and progressing towards Texarkana. Further
south, their behavior gets murkier, as they very well might just
collapse. However, they will be entering a very ripe environment,
abounding with above average heat and stubborn low level moisture,
so their retaining organizational structure and possibly producing a
wind threat is worth watching out for. This will be examined in
updates overnight to see if guidance continues to resolve this
feature.

As far as heat hazards, the story remains very much the same: the
Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory have been extended to
continue overnight and through the day Saturday until expiring at
02Z Sunday, encompassing the same areas as they did today. Lows
tonight will again fall only into the middle to upper 70s, possibly
not even below 80 for some sites, with a repeat performance in store
overnight Saturday into Sunday. Highs tomorrow are projected to
climb back to the upper 90s, with numerous sites reaching the lower
100s. Dew points look to continue to be slow to mix out, remaining
in the mid 70s until early afternoon, resulting in max heat indices
ranging from 105 to as high as 115, hence the aforementioned product
continuance.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

The long term forecast trends will heavily feature the upper level
trough over the Great Lakes, which looks to deepen as the ridge to
our west amplifies, bringing a very welcome pattern change for the
ArkLaTex.

Before that transpires, however, Sunday looks to consist of another
round of this recent hot, sticky and occasionally unsettled pattern
which we are thoroughly tired of experiencing (and writing about).
Riding on the same northwest flow as Saturday`s systems, another
disturbance looks to organize itself Sunday afternoon and ride
southeast out of western Arkansas into the evening and overnight
hours. Guidance suggests a secondary spike in precip chances behind
the initial wave, continuing possibly towards daybreak Monday, with
nearly negligible PoPs remaining into the day Monday. The Day 3 SWO
includes the northeasternmost reaches of the ArkLaTex in a Marginal
Risk, and we will be closely monitoring for the potential for severe
weather development with these complexes.

Sunday afternoon looks to possibly be the hottest of this entire
heat wave, with highs exceeding 100 degrees almost entirely across
the board, and a few sites taking aim at 103 to 104.

As the new work week begins, the eastern extent of the upper level
ridge will recede to the west, while the trough to the east deepens
further, allowing for what looks like northeasterly flow to backdoor
in some more seasonable temperatures, making for some welcome relief
after this prolonged heat wave. Guidance shows highs ranging from
the upper 90s and lower 100s southwest to the upper 80s and lower
90s northeast, followed by a more seasonable pattern consisting of
upper 80s to lower 90s north and lower 90s to middle 90s south
continuing through the remainder of the work week, while quiet
weather conditions prevail.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 16/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has again developed across much of the region
early this afternoon, and will persist before diminishing
by/shortly after 01Z. Aside from some thin cirrus, SKC will
prevail overnight, but should see some additional cirrus from
spill SSE from convection that will develop/spread SE through Nrn
and Cntrl AR prior to daybreak Saturday. Otherwise, should see
another cu field develop by/after mid-morning Saturday, with the
potential for isolated to widely scattered convection developing
by mid/late afternoon over SW AR, which may spread into portions
of N LA by 00Z Sunday. SSW winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become
S 5kts or less (or Lt/Vrb) after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81 101  81 103 /   0   0  10   0
MLU  78 101  79 103 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  75  99  74 102 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  80 101  78 103 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  76  98  76 101 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  80 101  79 103 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78 100  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  77  99  77 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ149-152-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15