768
FXUS64 KSHV 140542
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Another hot afternoon under upper ridging has once again led to a
warm night across the ArkLaTex. Latest ASOS/AWOS observations
continue to advertise temperatures in the mid to upper 80`s.
Though the Heat Advisory in effect earlier this afternoon was
allowed to expire, a new Heat Advisory is in effect for the region
starting at 10 AM CDT Wednesday. Aside from adjusting hourlies to
match the latest trends, no other updates are needed at this
time, and the forecast remains on track for the overnight period.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper level ridging will continue to exert its influence over
the ArkLaTex throughout this forecast period. The ridge axis will
drift east over the Plains and into the Midwest, but the associated
upper level high will stay well and truly centered over the Four
State Region through the remainder of this week.

Tomorrow looks to play out very similarly to today, with even less
of a rainfall chance, and what looks to be less precipitable water
available to transform into a Cu field during the late to mid
morning. From this set up, look for slightly less oppressive dew
points but higher air temperatures, resulting in ultimately
similar heat indices. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s with
dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat index values
between 105 and 109 degrees, thus have seen fit to issue another
Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM
Wednesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible.

A few widely scattered showers and storms across southeast Arkansas
and northeast Louisiana may manage to intrude into Union county and
Union parish tomorrow afternoon, but the high pressure overhead will
prevent any widespread rainfall impacts. Lows in the mid to upper
70s Thursday morning will be followed by another quiet and hot day
of upper 90s and lower 100s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Not to sound unnecessarily repetitive, but it remains true that once
you`ve got a handle on one day`s worth of our forecast, it`s pretty
much rinse and repeat for the time being. Afternoon highs in the
upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid
to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by
daybreak. This stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the
week, but not enough to keep apparent temperatures from climbing
back into advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon.

The GFS depicts upper level features continuing to morph and drift
around us as the week goes on, our area of high pressure will remain
trapped in place through Friday, before a new and deeper high
develops over the Four State Region and starts to absorb our high,
causing it to retrograde and opening the door to slight chances of
afternoon thunderstorms impacting our far southeastern zones in
north central Louisiana during the afternoon hours Friday and
Saturday. By Sunday afternoon, a deepening trough to our east may
manage to influence somewhat more widespread chances of showers, but
the probabilities still look fairly low. Early next week looks to
continue much in the same pattern, with brief chances of very
isolated storms across our far southeast each afternoon.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR flight conditions should prevail at all TAF sites, but some
lower ceilings around 2500 feet may develop and move northward
into East Texas near or just after sunrise. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop after 14/20z across South Central
Arkansas and Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Therefore, a
mention of VCTS was included at KELD and KMLU. Any convection that
does develop will be primarily diurnally-driven and should quickly
dissipate late in the period after sunset.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 100  80 101 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  79 101  78 101 /  10  10   0  10
DEQ  73  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  78 100  78 101 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /   0  10   0  10
TYR  78  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  97  76  99 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09