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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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913 FXUS64 KSHV 041759 AAA AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Another day, another aggressive morning of warming across much of the ArkLaTex. As of the 15-16Z hour, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s already. Thus have elected to increase today`s highs by ~1 degree. Upper 90s will prevail across the ArkLaTex, with some sites hitting the century mark yet again, based on persistence, established warming trends, and areas of likely lack of precipitation this afternoon. Dew points in the middle 70s will result in heat indices climbing back into the 105 to 115 range by mid-afternoon. Scattered showers and storms will still be possible for our southern and eastern zones after noon. Prevailing wind patterns look to steer these storms from southwest to northeast, most likely beginning in the Toledo Bend region and expanding in coverage towards Monroe, LA and adjacent regions of southern Arkansas, quickly tapering off after 00Z. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions should continue through the 04/18Z TAF period. A scattered cu field has developed across much of the region early this afternoon, and will linger before diminishing shortly after 00Z. Isolated convection can`t be ruled out this afternoon mainly over Cntrl LA into Lower Toledo Bend Country, but should remain E of the LFK terminal. Scattered to numerous areas of convection are expected to develop by this evening over Cntrl and NE OK, and will begin to shift SE into extreme SE OK/SW AR by/after 06Z, although this convection should weaken quickly as it shifts to areas along/N of I-20 through daybreak Friday. Some cu and cirrus cigs will accompany the decaying convection overnight as it shifts SE, but lingering sfc bndrys may help focus widely scattered convection by daybreak over portions of SW AR, where VCSH was added to the SW AR terminals. Isolated convection can`t be ruled our farther S into portions of E TX/N LA with any decaying bndrys, but low confidence precludes mention at the terminals attm. Areas of stratus/low stratocu may develop by/after 12Z Friday over Deep E TX/Cntrl LA, but should not make it much farther N than I-20 by mid-morning, before a scattered cu field develops by mid and late morning. Scattered deeper convection should develop by afternoon especially over E TX/N LA once daytime heating/instability is maximized. SSW winds 6-10kts this afternoon will become WSW around 5kts after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 81 97 77 / 10 20 60 40 MLU 98 78 95 74 / 30 20 70 40 DEQ 98 73 90 68 / 10 50 40 10 TXK 100 77 94 72 / 10 30 50 20 ELD 98 76 92 70 / 20 20 70 30 TYR 100 78 95 75 / 0 10 50 30 GGG 99 77 95 74 / 10 10 60 40 LFK 98 77 97 75 / 10 10 40 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097- 112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-108>111-124- 125-136-149. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 AVIATION...15