192
FXUS64 KSHV 032002
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
302 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

In short, Independence Day continues to look very hot for the
ArkLaTex, with perhaps the most apt descriptor of our outdoor
conditions being a "sauna-oven."

Over the next day or so, the area of high pressure aloft will
finally start to flatten out as an upper level low over the Midwest
begins to deepen. However, before the heat finally breaks, we have
another afternoon of hot temperatures to deal with, as the ridge
continues its influence on this streak of above average temperatures
through the short term forecast period.

Tonight`s low temperatures look to once again drop into the upper
70s to lower 80s, with stubborn surface level moisture yielding very
little if at all by daybreak. As the upper level ridge continues to
hold sway, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week, as
temperatures soar back into the upper 90s, with a few sites possibly
hitting the century mark again. As with this afternoon, stubborn
humidity will continue, resulting in heat index values between 105
to 115 through the early evening, before temperatures back into the
upper 70-s to lower 80s by daybreak Thursday.

Given that tomorrow is the 4th of July, and in light of all the
outdoor festivities being enjoyed for the holiday, precautions are
advised to prevent heat-related illnesses, including but not limited
to wearing loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, wearing hats and
making use of sunscreen, drinking plenty of water, and above all,
limiting outdoor exposure as much as possible, with frequent breaks
in shaded or air-conditioned spaces.

Meanwhile, the much-anticipated fireworks forecast is shaping up to
be mostly favorable, with a slight chance of sea breeze type
convection across portions of deep east Texas, extending into
central Louisiana and southern Arkansas, which may put a damper on
mid-afternoon events but should largely come to an end before dark
Thursday evening, allowing fireworks shows to hopefully continue as
planned.

However, the smoke from the last of the fireworks may barely have
had time to settle before rainfall chances resume. Influenced by the
aforementioned upper level trough and attendant surface boundary,
storms look poised to enter the ArkLaTex from the northwest
overnight Thursday into Friday morning, becoming more widespread
into the daytime hours. At this time, the overnight storm activity
does not look to become severe, but the development of the latest
forecasts will be closely monitored. By daybreak Friday,
temperatures will once again fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday night`s storms will only become more widespread Friday
morning, moving to cover the entire region into the afternoon hours.
At this time, the entire ArkLaTex is highlighted in the general
thunder area by the SPC, and careful attention will be given over
the next few days to any potential for more organized stronger
storms.

This will mark the beginning of a more prolonged unsettled pattern
for the ArkLaTex, as the upper level ridge which has been locking in
our heat all this week finally begins to shift off to the south and
east enough to allow the upper level trough digging south over the
Plains to swing its associated surface boundary into the region,
looking to become stalled here throughout the extended forecast
period. This new pattern will be characterized by more seasonable
temperatures with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the lower 70s,
owing primarily to near daily rainfall chances as several waves of
storms keep conditions damp through the weekend and into early next
week.

Meanwhile, the model guidance consensus continues to track Hurricane
Beryl on its westerly course, potentially bringing impacts to
southern Texas. While impacts to the ArkLaTex do not likely as of
this writing, we will of course be monitoring the latest forecast
updates attentively.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 03/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon across N
LA/Srn AR/Deep E and extreme Ern TX, and will continue farther W
through the afternoon, before diminishing by early to mid evening.
Isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible this
afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, but confidence
remains too low to include VCTS mention for the terminals in these
areas. Any convection that does develop should diminish by early
to mid evening, although some cirrus will linger through the
overnight hours over portions of E TX/N LA. Some areas of stratocu
are expected to develop by/shortly after daybreak Thursday over
portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with a scattered cu field
developing by late morning/early afternoon. Any convection
Thursday afternoon will be isolated, mainly over Deep E TX/N LA.
SSW winds 5-8kts this afternoon will diminish to 5kts or less
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82 100  81  98 /  10  10  10  40
MLU  79  97  79  95 /  10  20  10  60
DEQ  76  97  74  91 /   0  10  30  40
TXK  80  99  78  96 /   0  10  20  40
ELD  77  97  75  94 /  10  20  20  60
TYR  80  99  78  96 /   0   0  10  30
GGG  79  98  78  96 /   0  10  10  40
LFK  77  97  77  97 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112-
     126-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
     136-137-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15