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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
779 FXUS66 KSGX 152029 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 129 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected into this weekend. Temperatures will be near seasonal through the weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast for early to mid-next week. A brief warming trend is expected Sunday through mid-week. Night and morning low clouds and fog will remain near the coast, locally into the western valleys into early next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The upper-level high near Southern California will begin to migrate east as a trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest tomorrow, with a deeper trough of low pressure expected to move towards the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. The main impact for Southern California in this weather pattern will be a slight cooling trend for areas away from the low desert through Saturday. Temperatures in the low desert are expected to see minimal changes through Saturday. The upper-level flow becomes southerly for Friday as the area of high pressure moves east. This will allow for a shallow influx of lower level moisture into the low deserts. Dew points in the lower deserts are expected to increase to the low 60s Friday morning. As the upper-level flow shifts to a more southwest flow for the weekend, moisture will decrease. Dry conditions are expected for Friday, even with the shallow moisture influx. With the unfavorable flow aloft over the weekend, chances of any mountain showers or thunderstorms is expected to remain less than 7 percent. For early to mid-next week, Southern California will remain between the trough of low pressure over the Pacific and the ridge near the Four Corners region. The positioning of these two systems will play a big role in our temperature and precipitation forecast for next week. More influence from the trough would keep the area cooler and drier. More influence from the ridge would result in hotter conditions and increasing chances of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms. Current forecast closely follows the NBM with increasing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday and highest chances of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast for the end of next week has cooling conditions and decreasing chances of thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... 152000Z...Coast/Valleys...Redevelopment of patchy low clouds and VIS reductions as low as 4SM expected beginning 05-07z for most coastal sites. Localized VIS reductions below 3SM possible for valleys and higher coastal terrain through 15z. Bases will be lower at 400-900ft MSL with lower tops as well. Clearing tomorrow will occur at a similar time as today, around 17z Friday. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Friday morning. FEW-SCT120 Cu possible Friday afternoon near the mountains. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber