779
FXUS66 KSGX 152029
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
129 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected into this weekend. Temperatures will be near
seasonal through the weekend. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will return to the forecast for early to mid-next week. A brief
warming trend is expected Sunday through mid-week. Night and morning
low clouds and fog will remain near the coast, locally into the
western valleys into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The upper-level high near Southern California will begin to migrate
east as a trough of low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest
tomorrow, with a deeper trough of low pressure expected to move
towards the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. The main impact for
Southern California in this weather pattern will be a slight cooling
trend for areas away from the low desert through Saturday.
Temperatures in the low desert are expected to see minimal changes
through Saturday.

The upper-level flow becomes southerly for Friday as the area of
high pressure moves east. This will allow for a shallow influx of
lower level moisture into the low deserts. Dew points in the lower
deserts are expected to increase to the low 60s Friday morning. As
the upper-level flow shifts to a more southwest flow for the
weekend, moisture will decrease. Dry conditions are expected for
Friday, even with the shallow moisture influx. With the unfavorable
flow aloft over the weekend, chances of any mountain showers or
thunderstorms is expected to remain less than 7 percent.

For early to mid-next week, Southern California will remain between
the trough of low pressure over the Pacific and the ridge near the
Four Corners region. The positioning of these two systems will play
a big role in our temperature and precipitation forecast for next
week. More influence from the trough would keep the area cooler and
drier. More influence from the ridge would result in hotter
conditions and increasing chances of monsoonal showers and
thunderstorms. Current forecast closely follows the NBM with
increasing temperatures Sunday through Tuesday and highest chances
of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast for the end of next
week has cooling conditions and decreasing chances of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
152000Z...Coast/Valleys...Redevelopment of patchy low clouds and VIS
reductions as low as 4SM expected beginning 05-07z for most coastal
sites. Localized VIS reductions below 3SM possible for valleys and
higher coastal terrain through 15z. Bases will be lower at 400-900ft
MSL with lower tops as well. Clearing tomorrow will occur at a
similar time as today, around 17z Friday.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Friday morning. FEW-SCT120 Cu possible Friday afternoon near the
mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber