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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
223 FXUS66 KSGX 161615 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 915 AM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonal conditions expected for the weekend. The weather pattern will begin to support an influx of monsoonal moisture by early next week, with the best chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and lesser chances Tuesday and Thursday. A few degrees of cooling is expected for most locations Saturday, with warming conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday. Night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to continue to reach into portions of the western valleys through early next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Visible satellite at 9 AM was showing low clouds had moved into the western valleys overnight. The inversion on the 12Z KNKX sounding was around 9 degrees and that inversion combined with a coastal eddy, may result in slower clearing this morning compared to yesterday morning particularly in San Diego County. Night and morning low clouds and fog are expected to continue each day through early next week. An influx of monsoonal moisture mid-week may hinder low cloud development. Dry conditions are expected to continue through Monday. PoPs and thunderstorm chances are expected to begin to increase on Tuesday. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms next week continues to look like Wednesday, but chances of thunderstorms are elevated starting Tuesday and potentially into Thursday. Current trend is for conditions to dry out Friday into the weekend. After a brief cool down Saturday, temperatures will begin to warm again starting Sunday. Temperatures will peak on Tuesday, with moderate to areas of major heat risk in the Inland Empire. Overall, temperatures will be 3 to 5, locally up to 10 degrees above normal for Tuesday. The increase in moisture for Wednesday and potentially Thursday will help decrease high temperatures but conditions will feel more muggy. && .AVIATION... 161500Z...Coast/Valleys...Satellite shows low clouds and fog have pushed 15 miles inland with CIGs at most coastal sites. VIS at or below 1SM for higher coastal terrain and valleys area, with localized VIS reductions below 6SM for other coastal sites. Bases 600-1100ft MSL with tops to 1500ft MSL. Clearing for coastal sites begins by 17z. Redevelopment of low clouds again tonight, with a slightly earlier onset of CIGs beginning around 05z. Bases may be slightly higher with similar tops, and localized VIS reductions to 3SM or less. Mountains/Deserts...FEW-SCT Cu near the mountains with bases to 12,000ft MSL this afternoon through 02z. Otherwise, unrestricted VIS and SKC expected through Saturday morning. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber