![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
607 FXUS66 KSGX 110402 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 902 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure aloft and monsoonal moisture will bring hot weather inland today, with a chance of thunderstorms over the mountains and portions of the deserts. Slightly cooler Sunday with continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts. Drier with near normal temperatures Monday through the end of the week. Patchy low clouds and fog will gradually increase for the coastal areas each night and morning. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A few showers and thunderstorms developed over the mountains, High Desert, and San Diego county desert this afternoon and evening. Here is the total lightning (cloud to cloud + cloud the ground) count broken down by county: San Bernardino Co: 155, Riverside Co: 263, and San Diego Co: 64. Another afternoon and early evening of thunderstorms in the mountains, locally in the deserts, is expected for Sunday. Any storm that develops could produce localized flash flooding, frequent lightning, and/or gusty winds. Dry conditions are expected for Monday through the end of next week. From previous discussion issued 2 PM August 10, 2024... Tonight will be another warm one with little relief. Then temps go tepidly downhill, gradually returning to around normal by Monday. Coastal low clouds and fog will remain rather patchy tonight, however a coastal eddy appears to develop Sunday, which may encourage the marine layer to recover from the damage caused by the current high pressure and monsoon flow. The high pressure aloft weakens under the influence of a deeper trough to our northwest Sunday and Monday. This will help maintain near-normal temps for most if not all of next week. It will also help the marine layer recover more for greater coverage of coastal clouds during the nights and mornings. There is a slight rebound of high pressure aloft for Wednesday and Thursday that could boost temps a couple degrees. There are hints of increasing monsoonal moisture toward the end of next week, but nothing to forecast about yet, and our forecast remains dry through Saturday. Latest guidance shows a little more deepening to the trough to the north, which would drop temps below normal next weekend. && .AVIATION... 110330Z...Coast/Valleys...FEW-SCT clouds with bases around 700-1100 ft MSL along the coast. Coverage will vary overnight, with low clouds extending locally up to 15 miles inland by 15Z. Local VIS 3-5 miles on higher terrain at times. There will be a 40-50 percent chance for CIG impacts at KSAN and KCRQ between 10Z and 16Z, and about a 30 percent chance at KSNA. Low clouds or fog should clear to the coast 15-16z. Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds with bases around 10,000 ft MSL develop after 16Z, followed by a 20-30 percent chance of TSRA between 19Z Sunday and 03Z Monday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...CO/MM AVIATION/MARINE...PG