607
FXUS66 KSGX 110402
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
902 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure aloft and monsoonal moisture will bring hot
weather inland today, with a chance of thunderstorms over the
mountains and portions of the deserts. Slightly cooler Sunday with
continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and
deserts. Drier with near normal temperatures Monday through the
end of the week. Patchy low clouds and fog will gradually increase
for the coastal areas each night and morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A few showers and thunderstorms developed over the mountains, High
Desert, and San Diego county desert this afternoon and evening. Here
is the total lightning (cloud to cloud + cloud the ground) count
broken down by county: San Bernardino Co: 155, Riverside Co: 263,
and San Diego Co: 64. Another afternoon and early evening of
thunderstorms in the mountains, locally in the deserts, is expected
for Sunday. Any storm that develops could produce localized flash
flooding, frequent lightning, and/or gusty winds. Dry conditions are
expected for Monday through the end of next week.

From previous discussion issued 2 PM August 10, 2024...

Tonight will be another warm one with little relief. Then temps go
tepidly downhill, gradually returning to around normal by Monday.
Coastal low clouds and fog will remain rather patchy tonight,
however a coastal eddy appears to develop Sunday, which may
encourage the marine layer to recover from the damage caused by the
current high pressure and monsoon flow. The high pressure aloft
weakens under the influence of a deeper trough to our northwest
Sunday and Monday. This will help maintain near-normal temps for
most if not all of next week. It will also help the marine layer
recover more for greater coverage of coastal clouds during the
nights and mornings. There is a slight rebound of high pressure
aloft for Wednesday and Thursday that could boost temps a couple
degrees. There are hints of increasing monsoonal moisture toward the
end of next week, but nothing to forecast about yet, and our
forecast remains dry through Saturday. Latest guidance shows a
little more deepening to the trough to the north, which would drop
temps below normal next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
110330Z...Coast/Valleys...FEW-SCT clouds with bases around 700-1100
ft MSL along the coast. Coverage will vary overnight, with low
clouds extending locally up to 15 miles inland by 15Z. Local VIS 3-5
miles on higher terrain at times. There will be a 40-50 percent
chance for CIG impacts at KSAN and KCRQ between 10Z and 16Z, and
about a 30 percent chance at KSNA. Low clouds or fog should
clear to the coast 15-16z.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds with bases around 10,000 ft MSL
develop after 16Z, followed by a 20-30 percent chance of TSRA
between 19Z Sunday and 03Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO/MM
AVIATION/MARINE...PG