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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
700 FXUS66 KSGX 150445 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 930 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather will continue through this weekend. Aresa of night and morning coastal low clouds will occur each night. Higher pressure aloft will bring a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Patchy low clouds have begun along the immediate coast with clear skies elsewhere at mid-evening. A mostly persistence pattern except for slight cooling and slightly more low clouds will occur the next few days, with no changes in the forecast this evening. From previous discussion... With a shallow marine layer and no discernible trend in the onshore flow, we should get a similar low cloud and fog coverage late tonight and early Thursday morning. A coastal eddy develops Thursday and seems to strengthen for Friday and Saturday, which should bring more coastal clouds extending a little farther inland into western valleys early Friday and early Saturday. The weather pattern over the West is unchanging: a weak low pressure trough to the north and a strong high pressure ridge to the east. The ridge builds slightly today through Thursday, then the trough takes a step forward Friday into Saturday. Minor variations in temperatures are expected through the weekend. If we grab a microscope we can detect a tiny warming trend Thursday followed by a tiny cooling trend into Saturday. Next week the ridge to our east will strengthen and expand westward into SoCal a little more. That will bring a warming trend next week, peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday with temps several degrees above normal. We`ve been talking a lot about the return of monsoonal moisture, but recent guidance has shown that influence backing off. The moisture begins to return Friday, gradually increasing early next week, but only amounting to very low (below 12 percent) chances of thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts Tuesday and Wednesday; not even worth mentioning in the forecast. The bigger story will be the hotter weather inland Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. High temperatures will climb above 100 in the Inland Empire and the high desert, and above 110 in the lower deserts. && .AVIATION... 150330Z...Coast/Valleys...Redevelopment of patchy low clouds expected again tonight, bringing CIGs for coastal sites as early as 09z-10z. Slightly thicker marine layer possible, but similar bases as last night near 600-1000ft MSL with tops around 1200-1500ft MSL. Localized VIS reductions to 2-3SM possible up to 15 miles inland. Areas of lower cloud bases down to 400ft MSL possible around 12-15z. A weak coastal eddy could help the marine stratus linger an hour or so longer than today`s, with CIGs scattering around 16-17z for coastal sites. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly SKC with unrestricted VIS through Thursday evening. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Maxwell (Update)/MM (Previous Discussion) AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan