700
FXUS66 KSGX 150445
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonal weather will continue through this weekend.
Aresa of night and morning coastal low clouds will occur each night.
Higher pressure aloft will bring a warming trend next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Patchy low clouds have begun along the immediate coast with clear
skies elsewhere at mid-evening. A mostly persistence pattern except
for slight cooling and slightly more low clouds will occur the next
few days, with no changes in the forecast this evening.

From previous discussion...

With a shallow marine layer and no discernible trend in the onshore
flow, we should get a similar low cloud and fog coverage late
tonight and early Thursday morning. A coastal eddy develops Thursday
and seems to strengthen for Friday and Saturday, which should bring
more coastal clouds extending a little farther inland into western
valleys early Friday and early Saturday. The weather pattern over
the West is unchanging: a weak low pressure trough to the north
and a strong high pressure ridge to the east. The ridge builds
slightly today through Thursday, then the trough takes a step
forward Friday into Saturday. Minor variations in temperatures are
expected through the weekend. If we grab a microscope we can
detect a tiny warming trend Thursday followed by a tiny cooling
trend into Saturday. Next week the ridge to our east will
strengthen and expand westward into SoCal a little more. That will
bring a warming trend next week, peaking around Tuesday and
Wednesday with temps several degrees above normal. We`ve been
talking a lot about the return of monsoonal moisture, but recent
guidance has shown that influence backing off. The moisture begins
to return Friday, gradually increasing early next week, but only
amounting to very low (below 12 percent) chances of thunderstorms
in the mountains and deserts Tuesday and Wednesday; not even
worth mentioning in the forecast. The bigger story will be the
hotter weather inland Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. High
temperatures will climb above 100 in the Inland Empire and the
high desert, and above 110 in the lower deserts.

&&

.AVIATION...
150330Z...Coast/Valleys...Redevelopment of patchy low clouds
expected again tonight, bringing CIGs for coastal sites as early as
09z-10z. Slightly thicker marine layer possible, but similar bases
as last night near 600-1000ft MSL with tops around 1200-1500ft MSL.
Localized VIS reductions to 2-3SM possible up to 15 miles inland.
Areas of lower cloud bases down to 400ft MSL possible around 12-15z.
A weak coastal eddy could help the marine stratus linger an hour or
so longer than today`s, with CIGs scattering around 16-17z for
coastal sites.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly SKC with unrestricted VIS through
Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Maxwell (Update)/MM (Previous Discussion)
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan