773
FXUS63 KSGF 040512
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat
  index values of 95 to 110. The highest heat index values and
  threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern
  Missouri.

- Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible from today
  through Thursday night. There is a slight risk (2 of 5) for
  severe storms both today and Thursday with the main risk for
  damaging wind gusts.

- High moisture content over the area will lead to very
  efficient rain producing storms and the potential of localized
  flooding and flash flooding.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon
  into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper air analysis shows an upper-level high located over the
southeastern U.S. An upper-level trough is located over Ontario,
while a shortwave is located over the Rockies, moving east-
southeast. At the surface, a northeast-southwest oriented cold front
is moving slowly southeast. Convective initiation has begun in our
southeast CWA where moist, humid air is in front of the cold front.
A wider area of lighter rain is moving northeast out of southeast
Kansas.

Today, cloud cover over much of the area should limit highs to the
upper 80s and low 90s. The exception to this of course is where
there are no clouds, where highs instead reach the mid 90s. With
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, it will be hot and humid. A heat
advisory is in effect until 8 PM for these areas, although heat
indices likely will not reach as high as previously forecasted, as
moist air is beginning to be advected northward.

Thunderstorms are expected today. The Storm Prediction Center has us
in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather. With MLCAPE
between 2500-3750 J/kg, ample instability and humidity exist for
severe storms for areas currently free of clouds. Shear on the other
hand is on the low end, with values of 0-6 km shear from 25-35 knots
for the afternoon. CAMs show scattered development along the cold
front, which we are currently observing. Some other models, though a
lower number, strengthen incoming showers from northeast Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas and strengthen them further. Regardless, the
environment supports scattered damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall as the main hazards of these storms through the evening.

More thunderstorms are expected tonight. As the low-level jet
develops overnight, our area will be in the right-entrance
region of the jet. This will provide ample tropospheric lift for
storms to develop. Precipitable water vapor values of greater
than 2" are prevalent across Missouri, approaching the 99th
percentile, so significantly above our average climatology. This
has the potential to result in torrential rainfall late tonight
into Thursday morning as multiple rounds of thunderstorms move
through tonight. We are currently forecasting widespread areas
of 2-3" of rainfall, with the potential for localized pockets of
up to 6" of rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
the northern half of our CWA from 7 PM tonight through late
Thursday night because of this risk.

Moving to Thursday, some convection from the previous night may be
left over. The extent of remaining convection and cloud cover
will greatly influence what we get here on Thursday. Beginning
with heat, heat headlines may be possible in our southern
counties depending on how clouds clear. Both high-resolution
ensembles and the NBM give wide spreads in high temperatures
tomorrow (i.e at Branson, 25th percentile NBM gives 87, while
75th gives 94). The HREF gives 10-30% chances of exceeding heat
indices of 105 by the Arkansas border. More clarity on the exact
temperatures tomorrow should come as confidence in the forecast
improves.

Thunderstorm chances also depend on clearing tomorrow. The Storm
Prediction Center has our entire CWA in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5)
tomorrow. Depending on how early storms and clouds clear in the
morning affects destabilization, with greater destabilization
occurring in areas of greater heating. Storms will grow along a
surface cold front which will move southeast in the afternoon.
Values of shear and instability are high enough to support organized
storm modes before the thunderstorms grow upscale. Damaging wind
gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall are the primary hazards with these
storms, although some of the stronger storms which develop also pose
an isolated hail risk.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Looking into the long term, colder and drier air will move in behind
the front that moves through on Thursday. Highs will reach the mid
to upper 80s, while dewpoints fall to the low 60s, finally providing
some relief from the heat and humidity. Precipitation and
thunderstorm chances return on Sunday and Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves over our area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain north of the TAF
sites through much if not all of the night. There is a low
chance that storms currently across Kansas shift far enough
south to impact the JLN and SGF site around 12Z, however
confidence in this occurring is low.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along a cold front
by late afternoon and evening today. Current thinking is that
storms move east and south of the TAF sites around 06Z.
Southwest winds will shift to the northwest with the passage of
the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024


Record High Temperatures:


July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011



Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kenny
LONG TERM...Kenny
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Nelson