486
FXUS63 KSGF 070537
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Sunday and Monday...continuing over the
  east on Tuesday

- Temperatures look to remain near average through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The weather pattern this afternoon is characterized by a upper ridge
being shunted west of the Rockies and a broad upper trough over much
of the nation.  Shortwave energy descending down the Rockies will
cause the upper trough to dig and lead to the approach of a
cold front.

High pressure at the surface today will depart into the Ohio Valley
overnight into Sunday allowing low level moisture to return
ahead of the front as winds turn southerly setting the stage
for the return of rain.

With Precipital Water (PW) dropping to below an inch, saturation to
initially be a challenge late tonight though anticipate light
showers and perhaps a few rumbles with MLCAPES around 500 over SE KS
into far west MO by morning...with coverage and rainfall rates
improving from west to east later in the afternoon into Sunday night
as the upper wave arrives.  PW will increase throughout the
day...reaching 1.5 inches by Sunday evening.  Instability to remain
a question with h8-h5 lapse rates slowly improving but still in the
6-6.7 degree C/KM range. Thus expect rainfall amounts to be
generally around a quarter inch, with some spotty half inch
amounts farther to the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

PWs will continue to climb with synoptic lift forming ahead of
an approaching cold front. While coverage of rain will improve
on Monday MLCAPES to struggle to reach 1000 Joules so the amount
of convection/lightning to remain a question. increasingly
efficient rainfall rates to be noted south of I-44 where between
1/2 and 1 1/2 inches of rain will be possible through Monday.

With the cold front draped southwest to northeast across
Arkansas Tuesday, rain chances will be better (40-60%) over
south central MO decreasing northwestward to to below 10% over
west central MO.

At that point the future evolution of current Hurricane Beryl
becomes in question as it advects northward from the TX coast but
will curve eastward at some point. See the official HPC forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones...though additional rain is to be expected
over at least south central MO Wednesday with the remnants of this
tropical system meandering northeastward over Arkansas.

The region will then be positioned in upper northwest flow as
the mean upper trough shifts east. Confidence is low at this
time in the evolution of specific features which may cause
lift...though the column will be drying suggesting rainfall
amounts in areas that do see rain will be limited.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
remain light out of the southeast with a slight turn to the
south or southwest by Sunday night. There is a 30 percent chance
of a thunderstorm at JLN Sunday night with SGF and BBG likely
remaining dry until higher rain chances arrive at the end of the
TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield