043
FXUS63 KSGF 081752
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms today (40-60% chance).
 Higher chances arrive tonight through Tuesday Night (70-90%)
 especially southeast of Interstate 44.

-Flood Watch in effect tonight through Tuesday Night generally
 along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. 1-3 inches of
 rainfall expected in this area with localized 4-6 inch totals.
 Much lower rainfall amounts northwest of I-44.

-Marginal risk for a severe storm tonight into Tuesday morning
 along and east of a Branson to Rolla line. Low chance for
 damaging winds and/or a brief tornado in this area.

-Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with
 above normal temps returning for the end of the work week. Then
 the Heat Index will climb back above 100 by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a broad shortwave trough across
the central US with ridging across the west. Hurricane Beryl was
closing in on the Texas coastline with a northward motion. PW
values along the coast were in the 2.2-2.5in range. Locally, we
have seen an increase in moisture and instability over the last
24 hours. A front was currently stationary from eastern Kansas
into northwest Missouri. Weak low level warm air advection in
an uncapped environment was producing some scattered
thunderstorms from northeast Oklahoma into central Missouri.

Today: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should continue this
morning with perhaps a brief break around midday. While a few
peaks of sun may occur, clouds will be on the increase from the
south. The frontal boundary northwest of the area will begin to
slide southeast and latest high res guidance suggests that
thunderstorms should begin to develop along the front by mid to
late afternoon, somewhere close to the I-44 corridor. These
storms will likely be multicells given the relatively weak shear
(20-25kts). Lightning and brief gusty winds may occur with this
activity. PW values look to increase closer to 1.8in which
could lead to heavy rainfall rates and localized flooding. 00z
HREF generally supports localized pockets of 0.5 to 1.5in of
rainfall during the day today which could prime some of the
soils for more widespread rainfall tonight.

Tonight through Tuesday Night: Guidance continues to suggest
that the remnants of Beryl will move into northeast Texas
tonight with a widespread rain shield spreading north towards
the area. Highest rain chances are along and south of I-44
tonight after midnight. 00z HREF supports 0.5 to 1.5inches of
rainfall by sunrise generally along and east of a Branson to
Rolla line. The remnant frontal boundary may also act as focus
for renewed rain back closer to I-44 however its uncertain
where that front will be if its not overtaken by Beryl.

Beryl will continue tracking into Arkansas early Tuesday. This
track will allow for a small window spatially and temporally for
increased low level helicity in its right front quadrant. 00Z
HREF shows mean 0-1km SRH around 100-200m2s2. This could support
a few brief, low top, spinning showers and storms that could
produce a tornado or two. This potential is low however will
need to monitor the Ozark-Howell-Shannon-Oregon county areas
for this activity late tonight into early Tuesday morning for
this brief threat.

As we head through the morning and afternoon Tuesday, widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall will continue along and east of a
Branson to Rolla line. This will occur on the backside of the
remnants of Beryl as it moves through southeast Missouri. Rain
chances and intensity drop off quickly as one heads west. Rain
will be slow to end in the eastern Ozarks but looks to end
sometime late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

00z HREF supports pockets of 2-3 inches of rainfall during the
daytime hours Tuesday, especially along and east of a Branson
to Rolla line. The HREF currently has a 50-70% chance of at
least 3 inches of rainfall in this area. Therefore, 48hr totals
may reach 4-6 inches in localized areas and a Flood Watch has
been issued for tonight through late Tuesday night given the
forecast rainfall and the knowledge of typical flood prone areas
of the Missouri Ozarks. Confidence is lowest along the western
most tier of counties in the watch as there will be a fairly
sharp drop off in rainfall amounts on the western edge. Some
locations west of Highway 65 may not even see 1 inch of
rainfall. Additional fluctuations in the rainfall totals are
still possible therefore updates will be needed today and
tonight. It should be noted that the ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index/Shift of Tails does show the signal for an anomously high
rainfall event across our south central Missouri counties. Also
of note is the rather cool temperatures during the day Tuesday
given the rain and northerly winds. Many areas will remain in
the lower to middle 70s for high temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Midweek into the weekend: Ensembles continue to support
northwest flow Wednesday and Thursday with below average
temperatures. While confidence is low, weak energy moving down
from the northwest could produce a sprinkle or shower both
Wednesday and Thursday.

The upper level high out west will then spread east for the end
of the week and into the weekend. Much warmer 850mb temps look
to spread into the area which supports high temps warming back
up into the 90s. Rain chances look to remain below 20 percent.
Early Heat Index products from WPC and the NBM indicate the
potential for heat indicies to approach 100 degrees by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions will steadily deteriorate through the TAF period
ahead of the arrival of Tropical Storm (to-be Post-Tropical
Depression) Beryl. Scattered thunderstorms are currently
developing along a hybrid stationary boundary/outer-band of
Beryl. These will impact BBG early in the TAF period before
spreading NW into SGF and JLN. If the core of one of these
storms moves over a TAF site, heavy rain dropping visibilities
to 2-3 miles are possible.

A lull in thunderstorm activity will occur after 01Z. Lingering
showers will dominate this period before the greater bulk of
moderate to heavy precipitation moves in from the south after
04Z and through the rest of the period. SGF and BBG may receive
heavy showers--with the potential for a rumble of thunder or
two--during this period. JLN looks to be on the outer fringes
at this time but could still see heavy rain at times.

Other than rain, cloud cover will increase with most of the
clouds above VFR level until 09Z in which they will drop to MVFR
(potentially IFR) for SGF and BBG. Wind speeds will stay rather
light and variable with multiple boundaries clearing the sites
during the period. These should settle to 8-12 kts from the
NNE by 08Z. Gusts up to 20-30 kts will be possible during
heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024


Record Precipitation:

July 9:
KSGF: 1.19/1933
KVIH: 2.19/1965
KUNO: 1.27/2015

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Tuesday
     night for MOZ070-071-081>083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Burchfield