Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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486 FXUS63 KSGF 070537 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday...continuing over the east on Tuesday - Temperatures look to remain near average through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The weather pattern this afternoon is characterized by a upper ridge being shunted west of the Rockies and a broad upper trough over much of the nation. Shortwave energy descending down the Rockies will cause the upper trough to dig and lead to the approach of a cold front. High pressure at the surface today will depart into the Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday allowing low level moisture to return ahead of the front as winds turn southerly setting the stage for the return of rain. With Precipital Water (PW) dropping to below an inch, saturation to initially be a challenge late tonight though anticipate light showers and perhaps a few rumbles with MLCAPES around 500 over SE KS into far west MO by morning...with coverage and rainfall rates improving from west to east later in the afternoon into Sunday night as the upper wave arrives. PW will increase throughout the day...reaching 1.5 inches by Sunday evening. Instability to remain a question with h8-h5 lapse rates slowly improving but still in the 6-6.7 degree C/KM range. Thus expect rainfall amounts to be generally around a quarter inch, with some spotty half inch amounts farther to the southwest. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 PWs will continue to climb with synoptic lift forming ahead of an approaching cold front. While coverage of rain will improve on Monday MLCAPES to struggle to reach 1000 Joules so the amount of convection/lightning to remain a question. increasingly efficient rainfall rates to be noted south of I-44 where between 1/2 and 1 1/2 inches of rain will be possible through Monday. With the cold front draped southwest to northeast across Arkansas Tuesday, rain chances will be better (40-60%) over south central MO decreasing northwestward to to below 10% over west central MO. At that point the future evolution of current Hurricane Beryl becomes in question as it advects northward from the TX coast but will curve eastward at some point. See the official HPC forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones...though additional rain is to be expected over at least south central MO Wednesday with the remnants of this tropical system meandering northeastward over Arkansas. The region will then be positioned in upper northwest flow as the mean upper trough shifts east. Confidence is low at this time in the evolution of specific features which may cause lift...though the column will be drying suggesting rainfall amounts in areas that do see rain will be limited. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain light out of the southeast with a slight turn to the south or southwest by Sunday night. There is a 30 percent chance of a thunderstorm at JLN Sunday night with SGF and BBG likely remaining dry until higher rain chances arrive at the end of the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Burchfield