Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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324 FXUS63 KSGF 020508 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1208 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity return Tuesday through Thursday. - Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday with severe storms possible. - Slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A persistent MCS is moving across central Missouri this afternoon, despite CAMS indicating it should be dissipating. This was bringing rain, cloud cover and cooler temperatures to the areas around Lake of the Ozarks and central Missouri with some spots only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. South of the cloud cover however temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 90s in full sun. Synoptic models support the weakening and dissipation of the MCS this afternoon as the upper level trough over the region gets pushed/flattened to the east as an upper level storm system moves across southern Canada. The upper trough and attendant surface low will move east towards the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday morning. A cold front extending south from the low into the plains will push towards the Ozarks into the day Tuesday. In advance of the front, the surface pressure gradient will tighten quickly and allow for a rapid influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf region through tonight and Tuesday. Despite windy conditions, temperature will climb into the 90s during the day tomorrow with heat index values in the 100 to 110 range (warmest in the western Ozarks). As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issue from 11am to 8 pm Tuesday. This may need to be expanded depending on how warm temperatures get. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The cold front will begin to make its way south late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night which will bring the potential for some isolated strong to severe storms thanks to the warm and moist air that will be in place across the Ozarks Tuesday. The are differences in synoptic, short range and CAMS as to how far south storms will make it before losing support and weakening by Wednesday morning. This is likely due to the front slowing and stalling somewhere across central Missouri to the Arkansas state line. This stalled front will become the main focus for additional storms Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. south of the front, strong warm air and moisture advection will continue and bring the potential for additional heat headlines Wednesday, mainly for southern Missouri and provide the fuel for storm development Wednesday evening. With ample CAPE the focus of the front, storms may again be strong to severe. The 4th of July looks complicated with some synoptic models again developing late afternoon into evening storms as another surface low in the plains (and associated front) is pushed into the Ozarks by an upper level low moving across the northern plains. Ensembles and some synoptic models lean towards a wetter solution, though some models hold storms off until late in the evening (possibly after festivities are over) though confidence in a dry solution is rather low. This activity, again may be strong to severe and will need to be watched closely. The front will have made its way south of the Ozarks by Friday morning with a cooler airmass filtering into the region through the day. This will bring relief from the heat and last through Saturday as the upper level flow pattern becomes more northwesterly and surface high pressure moves over the region. Heading into Sunday and early next week, the upper pattern remains and several short waves move through the pattern which should keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonable. Additional rain may occur early next week thanks to the shortwaves moving through the upper level pattern and weak surface low development. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 For the 06z TAFS, an upper level ridge of high pressure was anchored over the lower Mississippi valley and extended northward into our CWA. An upper trough was pushing into the plains with convection from central and western KS into western IA. Most of the convection should stay northwest of the area through the period, although could start sneaking into the northwest CWA by the end of the period. We are going with VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds will pick up today by mid morning with some wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011 July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record Low Temperatures: July 1: KVIH: 56/1951 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 76/1933 July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Nelson