Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
573 FXUS63 KSGF 020706 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity return Today through Thursday. - Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday through Friday with severe storms...heavy rain and flooding possible. - Slightly cooler temperatures and drier Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level ridge centered over the lower Mississippi valley with the ridge axis extending northeast into the Ohio valley. An upper level trough was shifting east out of the Rockies into the plains and upper Mississippi valley and has aided in convection developing and pushing into the central plains into the upper Mississippi valley region. A stationary front was located north-south over far eastern Kansas with very moist and unstable air to the west of the front, while areas across MO still had dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the most part. Today: A warm front will lift northeast through the area this morning and that warm, moist and unstable air mass will push into the area. The area should remain capped during the day with the bulk of the upper energy associated with the upper level trough remaining to the northwest, the warm front to our north and a cold front to the west of the area. So, thunderstorm activity is not expected during the day. It will be hot and humid though and we have a heat advisory for the western half of the CWA. Temperatures today should reach the mid to upper 90s in the west and the low to mid 90s in the east. Heat index values will rise into the 101-108 degree range in the west and the mid 90s to around 102 in the east. Tonight: The upper level shortwave will push across the upper Mississippi valley region into the Great Lakes and should flatten out the ridge over the area to where the upper level flow will become more westerly to west-southwesterly. The surface front will gradually slide southeast into the area along with thunderstorm chances increasing...especially in the northern CWA. There is a risk of heavy rain with the storms that move into the northern CWA late tonight. Wednesday: The front, upper level energy, abundant moisture and instability will combine for renewed convection on Wednesday. This will pose a slight risk(2/5) of severe storms during the day with damaging wind as the main severe weather risk, along with heavy rain and localized flooding. Temperature forecast will be tricky with cloud cover and convective chances during the day potentially limiting some of the daytime heating. If some decrease in cloud cover can occur, there will be the potential for another heat advisory needed for areas mainly south of the cold front in southern Missouri. For now, we are going with highs in the mid 80s in our northwest CWA to the upper 90s in parts of MO along the MO/AR border, with heat index values there in the 105 to 111 range. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 206 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Another upper level shortwave will begin to push through the area Wednesday night into Thursday which will bring additional thunderstorm chances(30-70%) to the area on the 4th of July. The main wave looks to push across the area Thursday night into Friday with the Thunderstorm chances continuing into Friday morning. Thursdays temperatures will also be dependent on cloud cover and precipitation coverage. We are currently going with highs in the upper 80s in central MO to the upper 90s in the southwest corner of MO and heat index values form around 100 to 110. Surface high pressure should move in behind the front during the day Friday with clearing taking place along with a cooler air mass which should linger into Saturday with highs both days in the 80s. Another upper wave moves into the area though on Sunday into Monday which will bring the thunderstorm chances back into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 For the 06z TAFS, an upper level ridge of high pressure was anchored over the lower Mississippi valley and extended northward into our CWA. An upper trough was pushing into the plains with convection from central and western KS into western IA. Most of the convection should stay northwest of the area through the period, although could start sneaking into the northwest CWA by the end of the period. We are going with VFR conditions through the period. Southerly winds will pick up today by mid morning with some wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011 July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 2: KSGF: 76/1933 July 3: KSGF: 77/2018 July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg CLIMATE...Nelson