Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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358 FXUS63 KSGF 060710 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 210 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably warm and dry today. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday. - Temperatures look to remain near average through next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Dry and quiet conditions will occur today with broad surface high pressure in place over the region. Temperatures will be a touch warmer associated with 850 mb height rises, though still seasonably warm in the mid 80s to near 90. Water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper-level trough across the central CONUS with an embedded shortwave diving southeast through Montana early this morning. These impulses will help initiate storms across the Plains today; however, dry air and a lack of forcing this far east will preclude any rain chances for our CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No significant changes have been noted with the long term forecast. NBM percentile data suggest slightly cooler than normal temperatures Monday; otherwise, temperatures will be near normal through next week. As the aforementioned upper-level trough shifts east, south- southwesterly flow will increase moisture into the Missouri Ozarks. Convection will likely intensify over portions of Kansas and Oklahoma with diurnal heating on Sunday before potentially growing into an MCS and gradually shifting east. Current timing would bring showers and thunderstorms into our southeastern Kansas counties Sunday afternoon and overspreading the region Sunday night into Monday. Precipitation chances associated with this system wind down Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. Severe weather potential for the Missouri Ozarks on Sunday and Monday appears limited, as the better instability and shear are progged to remain to our west, though global models often struggle with instability at these time ranges, so trends will continue to be monitored. The latest NBM rainfall probabilities Sunday-Monday: >0.25 inch: 60-80% >0.50 inch: 40-60% >1.00 inch: 20-40% >2.00 inch: 0-20% We will also have to keep an eye on the track of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Beryl. Most ensemble guidance tends to bring it northeastward after it makes landfall as it gets steered by the upper-level trough. The official National Hurricane Center forecast does indicate at least some chance of Beryl`s remnants tracking close enough to the Missouri Ozarks to bring rain to our CWA for the middle to latter part of the week, though tropical cyclone forecasting can be very difficult and variable, so the forecast will have to be monitored in the coming days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 UPDATE: Smoke and haze from the fireworks of patriotic Americans has caused some temporary reductions in visibilities to below 6 SM early this morning. If significant reductions persist for extended periods of time, then future amendments to the TAFs will be made. VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. There is a low chance (<20%) of some patchy light fog between 10Z-12Z, though confidence was too low to include any mention in the TAFs. Skies will be mostly clear, and winds will be light (<10 kt) through the forecast period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio