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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
754 FXUS66 KSEW 282202 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 302 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A weak shortwave will bring in increased cloud cover and light showers this evening. Another frontal system will cross western Washington on Saturday, bringing in another round of showers. Unsettled and cloudy weather will linger into Monday morning before high pressure offshore allows conditions to dry out and slowly warm up through the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Skies have cleared throughout the morning and early afternoon, allowing for temps to make a run at 70 degrees. Clearing will last a few more hours before onshore flow leads to increased cloud cover and slight shower chances this evening and tonight. Any showers will be light and focused on the peninsula and North Cascades, resulting in little to no accumulation. A front will swing through the region throughout the day Saturday, with additional light shower chances confined mainly to the Olympics and higher terrain in the North Cascades. While much of the lowlands will see little more than cloudy skies and some occasional sprinkles, the mountains will see light accumulations of a few hundredths. Temperatures will return to near normal for late June with highs in the mid 70s across the lowlands. Shower chances will taper off Sunday, leading us into a drier upcoming period with a ridge building offshore. High resolution models continue to hint at the possibility of convergence zone shower activity developing along the King/Snohomish County line, though the exact track and intensity of any convergence zone showers is uncertain. Cloudy skies with periodic breaks will persist for much of the region on Sunday as onshore flow continues. Northwest flow aloft will maintain somewhat cloudy skies on Monday, with a slight chance for showers lingering over the mountains. Otherwise, Monday will be the last day of spring-like weather ahead of a pattern change on tap for the rest of the week. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Models in good agreement with a warming, drying trend throughout next week as an upper level ridge shifts onshore Monday into Tuesday. A weak shortwave will influence the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with shower chances minimal and temperatures increasing several degrees above normal. The ridge axis will cross over the region on Thursday with high pressure dominating the weather pattern into next weekend. The warmest days will likely come late in the extended period as we`ll see a 50-60% chance of exceeding 80 degrees for the lowlands going into next weekend. Shepard/Lindeman && .AVIATION...West flow aloft will become more southwesterly ahead of a shortwave trough approaching from the Pacific Saturday night into Sunday. CIGs are beginning to scatter out - mostly VFR across the terminals (few holdouts in MVFR off the coast and around KPAE but will scatter out throughout the afternoon). Overnight the ceilings will fill back in, but will stay VFR (except for the Cascades and along the coast with MVFR - IFR/LIFR possible in the Cascades). A few showers will be possible with a weak front Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and in the mountains. West and northwest winds 6 to 10 kt will weaken overnight and become light and variable Saturday morning, before blowing westerly. KSEA...VFR CIGs will continue to scatter out this afternoon. A mid level VFR ceiling will fill in ahead of the front. Showers are expected to stay north/west of the terminal. Light north winds 6 to 10 kt will weaken overnight, and become more westerly during the day Saturday. HPR && .MARINE...High pressure will build offshore today with weak onshore/northerly flow over the waters. A weak system will pass through the region this weekend. No hazards are expected with this push through, as winds become light and more westerly Saturday and Sunday with the frontal passage. Behind the system, pushes down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will be almost daily. The strongest of the pushes will be Sunday and Monday afternoon, but are expected to remain below 20 kt. Seas of 3 to 4 feet today/Saturday will build to 4 to 6 feet Sunday through Tuesday, increasing to 6 to 8 feet Wednesday and Thursday. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$