503
FXUS61 KRNK 061804
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
204 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will meander to our east through tonight, keeping the
better chances for storms across the Piedmont to the coast.
Front wavers Sunday with a continued chance for showers and
storms mainly in the Piedmont. Next week, expect a daily chance
for storms as a couple fronts move into the area, aided by
moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the
remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory remains for parts of the NC and VA Piedmont
and Southside VA. Some records may be reached or broken, see
Climate section below.

2. Less chances for storms today as drier air nudges southeast
limiting chance to over southern VA into NC. About the same
chance again Sunday. Locally heavy rain possible with any storm.

Moisture has come down compared to last night as evidence by 12z
RNK sounding, where pwats fell from 1.71 inches Friday evening
to 1.19 inches this morning. However, pwats remain elevated
close to 2 inches at GSO this morning. There is a sharp gradient
between higher moisture and lower dewpoints. Numerous models
trend slightly drier today and push the chance of storms further
southeast across NC into eastern VA but enough moisture
convergence along a front in the higher theta-e gradient will
lead to scattered storms roughly from the NC mountains to
southside VA, but again, trends are further southeast so don`t
be surprised if the majority of our forecast area stays dry this
afternoon. With the lower dewpoints, heat indices may not reach
advisory levels, but at this point still hot with highs in the
mid to upper 90s in the piedmont, so not making any changes to
the headlines.

The upper pattern does not change much into Sunday with ridge
situated over the southeast with a broad southwest flow, holding
the front up across the piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina.
Moisture will pool along and east of the front hanging close
enough to our piedmont, possibly west to the southern Blue Ridge
for a chance for storms Sunday afternoon. The low level flow
will be weak, so any storms will be slow movers. Sky cover and
light east wind may limit heat, so heat advisory levels do not
look likely Sunday afternoon.

Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in
frontal location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Spotty, hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast for the early half of next week.

2. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

Looking to Sunday night and Monday, a broad upper level trough will
be established across the Great Plains region, with modest ridging
in place along the eastern seaboard. Closer to home, will be keeping
an eye on a stationary front draped across the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Seems to be good consensus in the weather model data that the front
will begin to drift northward, gradually fading as it progresses, as
low pressure passes across the Great Lakes. Increasingly southerly
windflow across the region will carry deep moisture northward from
the Gulf of Mexico, which will support the development of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water
values ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches from west to
east across our area (about 2 standard deviations above normal for
early July), will again be looking at the potential for
thunderstorms that produce locally heavy rain at rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour. Highest threat for this will be across the
Piedmont, where the deeper moisture will be located.

Continued muggy conditions are expected for Tuesday, with spotty
showers and thunderstorms developing with afternoon heating, a few
of which could produce locally heavy downpours. Higher potential for
rainfall will be across the mountains where the terrain can help
influence storm development, however won`t be surprised to see this
activity spill across the Piedmont by early evening.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Will be keeping an eye on how the remnant moisture from Beryl
will affect the lower Mid-Atlantic next week.

The pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the second half of the coming workweek as a broad upper level trough
remains situated across the Great Plains, allowing south-
southwesterly windflow to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf
of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic.

One feature that will be monitored with interest is the remnant of
Beryl, which will be a dissipated system by this point, but still a
potent source of moisture. Weather forecast models are hinting that
the remains of Beryl will pass over the lower Ohio River Valley
around the Thursday timeframe, potentially reaching into the
Tennessee Valley. Will be watching for the potential for more-
organized and widespread rainfall as we approach the end of the
workweek, though still too early to get more specific than that as
low confidence remains as to where the remnants of Beryl will end
up.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for much of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR with scattered cumulus this afternoon and some cirrus
at times. A few showers/storms could skirt close to DAN this
afternoon but majority appears to take a southeast path toward
RDU. As we head through tonight, seems likely that fog forms
again in the mountain valleys, so kept some MVFR at BLF/BCB
while dropping LWB to LIFR at times. DAN could also see some fog
if it rains nearby so have MVFR vsbys here.

Any fog/stratus Sunday morning will lift to another scattered
cumulus field by late morning.

Average confidence in the above forecast.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances for storms
exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it storms and any
late night fog.

Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Record highs for July 6th. Not expecting any but could be close
at Lynchburg.

Saturday 07/06/2024
Site                 Record High/Year        Forecast
Bluefield                  92/2010               82
Danville                  102 1990               95
Lynchburg                  98 2010               96
Roanoke                   100 1999               94
Blacksburg                 94 2010               88

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX radar is being worked on today by technicians.

BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Rainfall
for Friday July 5th will be missing, until we get data
retrieved.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...WP
CLIMATE...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM/WP