346
FXUS61 KRNK 070130
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
930 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will meander to our east through tonight, keeping the
better chances for storms across the Piedmont to the coast.
Front wavers Sunday with a continued chance for showers and
storms mainly in the Piedmont. Next week, expect a daily chance
for storms as a couple fronts move into the area, aided by
moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the
remnants of Beryl.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Muggy overnight in the piedmont with isolated thunderstorms.

2. Little change Sunday with isolated thunderstorms.

Front has pretty much washed out.  It made it a little over half
way across the CWA before becoming stationary.  Cloud streets
either side of the front are now running parallel to the boundary
which suggests front has lost its push and will now begin to lose
its identity.  Attm, it divides a muggy airmass over the piedmont
with a less moisture rich airmass west of the mountains, dewpoints
ranging from 62 at Bluefield to around 72 in Danville.  Convergence
along and east of the front is supporting shower and thunderstorm
development.  CAMS suggest some of the activity may drive north and
our southern CWA overnight...so raised pops along and south of the
VA/NC border.

The upper pattern does not change much into Sunday with ridge
situated over the southeast with a broad southwest flow, holding
what`s left of the front up across the piedmont of Virginia and
North Carolina. Moisture will pool along and east of the front
hanging close enough to our piedmont, possibly west to the southern
Blue Ridge for a chance for storms Sunday afternoon. The low
level flow will be weak, so any storms will be slow movers. Sky
cover and light east wind may limit heat, so heat advisory levels
do not look likely Sunday afternoon.

Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in
frontal location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Spotty, hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast for the early half of next week.

2. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal.

Looking to Sunday night and Monday, a broad upper level trough will
be established across the Great Plains region, with modest ridging
in place along the eastern seaboard. Closer to home, will be keeping
an eye on a stationary front draped across the lower Mid-Atlantic.
Seems to be good consensus in the weather model data that the front
will begin to drift northward, gradually fading as it progresses, as
low pressure passes across the Great Lakes. Increasingly southerly
windflow across the region will carry deep moisture northward from
the Gulf of Mexico, which will support the development of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water
values ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches from west to
east across our area (about 2 standard deviations above normal for
early July), will again be looking at the potential for
thunderstorms that produce locally heavy rain at rates of 2 to 4
inches per hour. Highest threat for this will be across the
Piedmont, where the deeper moisture will be located.

Continued muggy conditions are expected for Tuesday, with spotty
showers and thunderstorms developing with afternoon heating, a few
of which could produce locally heavy downpours. Higher potential for
rainfall will be across the mountains where the terrain can help
influence storm development, however won`t be surprised to see this
activity spill across the Piedmont by early evening.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Will be keeping an eye on how the remnant moisture from Beryl
will affect the lower Mid-Atlantic next week.

The pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the second half of the coming workweek as a broad upper level trough
remains situated across the Great Plains, allowing south-
southwesterly windflow to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf
of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic.

One feature that will be monitored with interest is the remnant of
Beryl, which will be a dissipated system by this point, but still a
potent source of moisture. Weather forecast models are hinting that
the remains of Beryl will pass over the lower Ohio River Valley
around the Thursday timeframe, potentially reaching into the
Tennessee Valley. Will be watching for the potential for more-
organized and widespread rainfall as we approach the end of the
workweek, though still too early to get more specific than that as
low confidence remains as to where the remnants of Beryl will end
up.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for much of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Mainly VFR with bkn-ovc mid layer cloud. A few showers/storms
could skirt VA/NC border through 06Z/2AM...close to DAN, but
winds are weak so not anticipating on the activity moving very far
into VA if at all.

If skies clear, look for fog to form in the mountain valleys.
Currently advertising MVFR at BLF/BCB while dropping LWB to LIFR
at times after midnight. DAN could also see some fog
if it rains nearby so have MVFR vsbys there too.

Any fog/stratus Sunday morning will lift to another scattered
cumulus field by late morning.  Any deep convection Sunday
afternoon is expected to be widely scattered, so not confident
enough to put in any of the TAFS.

Average confidence in the above forecast.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances
for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it
storms and any late night fog.

Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

Record highs for July 6th compared to the observed.

Saturday 07/06/2024
Site                 Record High/Year          Actual (through 5PM)
Bluefield                  92/2010               79
Danville                  102 1990               95
Lynchburg                  98 2010               95
Roanoke                   100 1999               93
Blacksburg                 94 2010               87

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX Radar is degraded...Horizontal Low Noise Amplifier is INOP,
damaged by thunderstorm.  Please use data with caution.
High reflectivity above 40 dbz appears OK, but unable
to detect low reflectivity. A Low Noise Amplifier has
been emergency ordered.

BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Rainfall
from the Coop Observer was 0.12 and will be used for Climate
purposes for July 5th.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...PM/WP
EQUIPMENT...PM