511
FXUS61 KRNK 030638
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
238 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the region`s weather,
allowing for dry conditions today. However, it will be slightly
warmer and more humid. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
by Thursday and continue through the weekend as a front stalls
in the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Slightly warmer and more humid today.

2) No rain expected.

Surface high pressure center will remain anchored off the Mid
Atlantic coast today, before beginning to sink south-southeast
on Thursday. Aloft, ridging builds in farther as well, before
gradually deamplifying by Thursday morning. These two features
will support temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the
area. Expect slightly warmer readings in the Piedmont,
Southside, and central VA.

The increased subsidence, combined with a more southwesterly
flow on the back side of the surface high, will result in
increased humidity this afternoon, with dew points gradually
climbing into the 60s.

Overnight, expect increasing cloud cover as a belt of
westerlies and PVA sinks south towards the forecast area. No
precipitation is forecast until after rush hour Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Hot and Humid!

2: Storms likely each afternoon

A subtropical ridge will move east over the southeastern states
Thursday July 4th, bringing hot and humid conditions to the
area. High temperatures Thursday will range from the mid to
upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge and low to mid 90s east. These
temperatures are around 5F-8F warmer than normal. Heat index
values will run in the 97F-103F range east of the Blue Ridge and
upper 80s to mid 90s west for a few hours in the afternoon.
Friday`s temperatures and heat index values could be similar if
not a few degrees warmer. See climate section for record
temperatures for July 4th and 5th.

A disturbance tracking on the northern rings of this ridge could
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area, disrupting
Independence Day celebrations and fireworks. The highest
probability for storms remains north of Highway 460. A cold
front approaches Friday afternoon but is not forecast to move
over the area until late Friday night into Saturday. Prefrontal
scattered convection is more likely across the mountains Friday
afternoon, then east of the Blue Ridge late afternoon into
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Confidence remains high for above normal temperatures through
the period with the warmest day on Saturday.

2. Unsettled weather persists through the long term period with
afternoon/evening storms possible each day.

The subtropical ridge is expected to move off the southeast
coast this weekend, bringing some relief to the excessive
heat. A cold front will move across the mountains and stall over
the piedmont Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for
areawide showers and thunderstorms Saturday, then east of the
Blue Ridge Sunday. Typical afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are possible Monday into Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions remain through the weekend.
Temperatures cool off a bit Monday and Tuesday, but the
humidity will remain elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Despite high pressure in place, an area of mid clouds above 5kft
remain over the southern Blue Ridge and parts of the western
mountains, associated with a weak wave aloft. Expect occasional
clouds between 5-7 kft at times today, along with passing
cirrus.

Light and variable winds will become S/SW by this afternoon as
surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast sinks south. Speeds
should mainly be AOB 10 kts.

OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Independence Day: Odds of SHRA/TSRA increase from the NW by
early afternoon as energy aloft sinks south. Flight category
reductions of MVFR or lower will be possible, initially at
BLF/LWB followed by BCB, ROA, LYH, and DAN.

Friday-Sunday: SCTD SHRA/TSRA remain possible as a storm system
continues impacting the region. Flight category reductions remain
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Record highs and warmest lows temperatures for July 4th and 5th.

Thursday 07/04/2024
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    92 1957    68 2018
KDAN    99 1925    74 1999
KLYH    98 1966    76 1902
KROA    99 1999    74 2018
KRNK    94 1966    71 1941


Friday 07/05/2024
Site  MaxT Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    93 1948    71 1969
KDAN   103 1919    76 1926
KLYH    98 2012    75 1900
KROA   100 1999    76 2012
KRNK    94 1930    78 1949

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...DB/SH
CLIMATE...RCS