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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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346 FXUS61 KRNK 070130 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 930 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A front will meander to our east through tonight, keeping the better chances for storms across the Piedmont to the coast. Front wavers Sunday with a continued chance for showers and storms mainly in the Piedmont. Next week, expect a daily chance for storms as a couple fronts move into the area, aided by moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the remnants of Beryl. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 930 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Muggy overnight in the piedmont with isolated thunderstorms. 2. Little change Sunday with isolated thunderstorms. Front has pretty much washed out. It made it a little over half way across the CWA before becoming stationary. Cloud streets either side of the front are now running parallel to the boundary which suggests front has lost its push and will now begin to lose its identity. Attm, it divides a muggy airmass over the piedmont with a less moisture rich airmass west of the mountains, dewpoints ranging from 62 at Bluefield to around 72 in Danville. Convergence along and east of the front is supporting shower and thunderstorm development. CAMS suggest some of the activity may drive north and our southern CWA overnight...so raised pops along and south of the VA/NC border. The upper pattern does not change much into Sunday with ridge situated over the southeast with a broad southwest flow, holding what`s left of the front up across the piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina. Moisture will pool along and east of the front hanging close enough to our piedmont, possibly west to the southern Blue Ridge for a chance for storms Sunday afternoon. The low level flow will be weak, so any storms will be slow movers. Sky cover and light east wind may limit heat, so heat advisory levels do not look likely Sunday afternoon. Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in frontal location. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Spotty, hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the early half of next week. 2. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. Looking to Sunday night and Monday, a broad upper level trough will be established across the Great Plains region, with modest ridging in place along the eastern seaboard. Closer to home, will be keeping an eye on a stationary front draped across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Seems to be good consensus in the weather model data that the front will begin to drift northward, gradually fading as it progresses, as low pressure passes across the Great Lakes. Increasingly southerly windflow across the region will carry deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, which will support the development of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. With precipitable water values ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches from west to east across our area (about 2 standard deviations above normal for early July), will again be looking at the potential for thunderstorms that produce locally heavy rain at rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour. Highest threat for this will be across the Piedmont, where the deeper moisture will be located. Continued muggy conditions are expected for Tuesday, with spotty showers and thunderstorms developing with afternoon heating, a few of which could produce locally heavy downpours. Higher potential for rainfall will be across the mountains where the terrain can help influence storm development, however won`t be surprised to see this activity spill across the Piedmont by early evening. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Will be keeping an eye on how the remnant moisture from Beryl will affect the lower Mid-Atlantic next week. The pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through the second half of the coming workweek as a broad upper level trough remains situated across the Great Plains, allowing south- southwesterly windflow to draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico across the Mid-Atlantic. One feature that will be monitored with interest is the remnant of Beryl, which will be a dissipated system by this point, but still a potent source of moisture. Weather forecast models are hinting that the remains of Beryl will pass over the lower Ohio River Valley around the Thursday timeframe, potentially reaching into the Tennessee Valley. Will be watching for the potential for more- organized and widespread rainfall as we approach the end of the workweek, though still too early to get more specific than that as low confidence remains as to where the remnants of Beryl will end up. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for much of the period. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... Mainly VFR with bkn-ovc mid layer cloud. A few showers/storms could skirt VA/NC border through 06Z/2AM...close to DAN, but winds are weak so not anticipating on the activity moving very far into VA if at all. If skies clear, look for fog to form in the mountain valleys. Currently advertising MVFR at BLF/BCB while dropping LWB to LIFR at times after midnight. DAN could also see some fog if it rains nearby so have MVFR vsbys there too. Any fog/stratus Sunday morning will lift to another scattered cumulus field by late morning. Any deep convection Sunday afternoon is expected to be widely scattered, so not confident enough to put in any of the TAFS. Average confidence in the above forecast. AVIATION OUTLOOK... The weather pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it storms and any late night fog. Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook. && .CLIMATE... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... Record highs for July 6th compared to the observed. Saturday 07/06/2024 Site Record High/Year Actual (through 5PM) Bluefield 92/2010 79 Danville 102 1990 95 Lynchburg 98 2010 95 Roanoke 100 1999 93 Blacksburg 94 2010 87 && .EQUIPMENT... KFCX Radar is degraded...Horizontal Low Noise Amplifier is INOP, damaged by thunderstorm. Please use data with caution. High reflectivity above 40 dbz appears OK, but unable to detect low reflectivity. A Low Noise Amplifier has been emergency ordered. BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Rainfall from the Coop Observer was 0.12 and will be used for Climate purposes for July 5th. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...PM/WP EQUIPMENT...PM