587
FXUS61 KRLX 021717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Temperatures
warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives late Wednesday.
Semi-stationary cold front expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 106 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high
pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday,
mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect
mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy
fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.

Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in
control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day
with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or
two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds
throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which
could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a
marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West
Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be
mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more
stable atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

  * Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Wednesday with
    cold front.

  * There is a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across
    SE Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday.

Area of high pressure over the southern CONUS allowing a ridge
pattern to sit over the area. Dry weather will stick around into
early Wednesday afternoon. The ridge will then shrink southward
with an approaching shortwave/cold front from the west. PoPs
then increase gradually from west to east across Ohio through
the afternoon; spreading across much of the forecast area into
the evening.

The front then stalls Wednesday night into Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms carrying over into Thursday as it sits in our
vicinity. There is a marginal risk for severe weather across SE
Ohio and much of Kentucky for Wednesday into Thursday
associated with this system. The main risk will be damaging
winds, but heavy downpours remain possible with precipitable
water reaching 2 inches or higher across the area. Isolated or
localized flash flooding could be possible as a result.

Temperatures look to be in the low to mid 90s across the
lowlands on Wednesday, mid 70s to upper 80s are expected for
the mountains. Slightly less warmer temperatures on Thursday
with most of the area staying in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

The previously mentioned stalled front will gain some steam late
Thursday, pulling off to the north and subsequently taking PoPs
with it. Another cold front looks to swing down with a low
pressure center that will drop out of Canada into the upper
midwest/Great Lakes area. In turn, the start of the weekend
looks unsettled, but a dry period may emerge from Sunday into
Monday with high pressure.

Temperatures look to remain hot and above the seasonable normal
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 101 PM Tuesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will continue through the 18Z TAF
period for most locations, but the sheltered mountain valleys
may see some IFR dense fog overnight, mainly from 6-12Z
Wednesday. IFR fog has been included at KEKN during this
timeframe.

Winds will remain out of the southeast for the remainder of the
day, with occasional gusts to 20 kts at some terminals. Winds
will gradually diminish overnight for most locations, but KBKW
can still see some occasional gusts 15-20 kts overnight. Winds
will then become more south-southwesterly Wednesday, becoming
gusty at times during the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC