913
FXUS61 KRLX 041031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
631 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front becomes diffuse today. Upper level disturbance and
unsettle conditions provide showers and thunderstorms today. More
active weather is expected Friday with a cold front passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 308 AM Thursday...

While a frontal boundary remains stationary northeast of the area
today, very unstable conditions will emerge this afternoon with SB
CAPE exceeding 3,500 J/Kg, PWATs from 2.0 to 2.2 inches, and
dewpoints in the low the mid 70s. Without a trigger, strong
convection may not materialize until the arrival of upper level
short waves. Models brings a vorticity maxima around 21Z
Thursday to 00Z Friday. This wave will provide deep layered
shear from 35 to 55 knots mainly across the northern half of the
area. Hi-res CAMs show convection arriving to the Middle OH
valley and NE KY around 19Z this afternoon, spreading east into
WV into the evening hours. The aforementioned unstable conditions
will allow for long lived thunderstorms, some strong to severe
into this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds.
Locally heavy downpours are also anticipated with the potential
for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to train over the
same areas. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and for
excessive rainfall exist over the entire area through tonight.

For tonight, the environment remains unstable and humid with a near
stationary frontal boundary becoming diffuse nearby. Any upper level
shortwave could trigger nocturnal convection. Therefore, precipitation
will remain likely Thursday night. Guidance suggest low stratus
formation across northern SE OH, and northern and northeast WV
late tonight. Some areas may experience post-rain dense fog, but
confidence is growing.

Abundant cloud cover will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the
upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 70s higher
elevations. Very humid night is anticipated Thursday night with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Lows will range from the mid 70s
lowlands, into the lowe 60s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...

Cold front moves northward as a warm front, allowing for above
normal temperatures to move back in with southwesterly/southerly
flow taking precedence. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to around 90 for the lowlands with mid 70s to the upper 80s
being reached in the mountains.

There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather and
excessive rainfall across the area Friday with a cold front. The
marginal risk for severe being situated across the western
portions of the forecast area along the Ohio River Valley, most
likely due to the timing of the frontal passage. Excessive
rainfall risk is shifted farther to the east and along the
mountains to cover overnight stratiform rainfall with this
front. There could be some strong to severe storms that achieve
damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Cold front will be exiting come Saturday morning with chances for
lingering showers or drizzle in the mountains until afternoon. Stark
clearing will take place behind the front, as well with drier
weather settling in for the remainder of the weekend thanks to
high pressure.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Monday as a few
shortwaves look to move through. A cold front also looks to
cross on Tuesday allowing for higher probabilities for showers
and thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the long-term period
with the hottest afternoon looking to be on Monday, where 90s will
be common across most the lowlands. Otherwise, mid to high 80s will
be the normal each afternoon for the lowlands, with the mountains
ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 629 AM Thursday...

Radar imagery is showing how showers and thunderstorms
dissipated as they move overhead. However, an H500 shortwave
arrives to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 12Z. Under a
very unstable environment, this wave will likely trigger showers
and thunderstorms this morning. Convection will be ongoing by
mid morning mainly across the southern half of the area to
affect HTS, CRW and BKW through this afternoon. Have coded IFR
conditions in TEMPO groups for this morning activity.

Another shortwaves will arrive this afternoon and evening
enhancing afternoon convection areawide. Have timed convection
at different terminals mainly across the northern terminals
closer to the Hi-res HRRR solution, using PROB30 groups for now.
Expect brief periods of IFR conditions under heavy rain. Strong
gusty winds may occur at and nearby stronger storms.

An area of MVFR ceilings may develop overnight tonight along the
eastern mountains and western foothills of WV. Despite general
guidance suggesting dense fog, believe low stratus will develop
instead due to H850 winds about 20 knots.

Winds will continue to be light from the southwest, except
variable and gusty nearby stronger storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection and associated
restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 07/04/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ