872
FXUS61 KRLX 022317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
717 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday. Next chance
for rain arrives late Wednesday. Semi-stationary cold front
expected on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 505 PM Tuesday...

No changes necessary.

As of 106 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue the rest of today, courtesy of high
pressure. Temperatures are running a bit higher than yesterday,
mainly due to a more southerly component to the wind. Expect
mainly clear skies overnight with diminishing winds, but patchy
fog may develop in the sheltered mountain valleys.

Most of Wednesday will remain quiet with high pressure in
control. A south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day
with temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. Late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southeast Ohio due to an approaching 500-mb shortwave. One or
two severe storms cannot be ruled out as instability builds
throughout the day. 0-6km shear will only be 20-25 kts, which
could be a limiting factor. SPC has placed southeast Ohio in a
marginal risk of severe weather for this timeframe. West
Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and southwest Virginia should be
mostly free of thunderstorms with little/no forcing and a more
stable atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across SE
  Ohio and NE Kentucky on Wednesday Night.
* There is a Level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather across the
  entire forecast area for Thursday into Thursday evening.


Showers move into the area Wednesday night, especially for the
mid- Ohio Valley and our SE Ohio counties. There remains a bit
of uncertainty on just how far southeast precip may make it by
sunrise, so we only have Chance POPs southeast of the I-79
corridor. However, the entire area looks to see showers and
storms Thursday and Thursday night as the front moves towards
and stalls near or over the CWA. SPC has assessed a Marginal
risk for Wednesday night for the Ohio River and SE Ohio, with
Marginal across the whole area for Thursday. The Wednesday
night risk would likely mainly depend on clusters or a line
with severe winds moving into the area. For Thursday, the
potential for morning showers or at least cloud cover could
limit instability and severe potential. As the front remains
stalled near the area in zonal flow aloft, and disturbances
move along it, showers and storms will remain possible across
the area on Friday and Friday night.

We`ll likely remain near or a bit above normal on high temps
for Thursday and Friday, but that may be dependent on precip
coverage and cloud cover. With the expected humidity and
dewpoints, overnight lows will remain above normal, in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

An upper-level trough should finally break through the zonal
flow Saturday and kick the front through the area. There will
still be a chance for rain mostly in the southern and eastern
parts of the CWA on Saturday, but that should quickly come to
an end overnight as drier air works into the area. We should be
dry on Sunday, and possibly Monday as well. However, don`t
expect much in the way of temperature relief, as it currently
doesn`t look to be a significant push of cooler or drier air,
and high temps may at best revert towards normal.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM Tuesday...

VFR for much of the area with the exception of patchy LIFR/VLIFR
valley fog in deeper mountain valleys between 09-12Z, including
at KEKN.

After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However,
occasional gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z.

After 18Z, showers and thunderstorms will move into SE Ohio and
perhaps NE KY, with strong, gusty winds, and brief IFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and timing overnight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/JMC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL