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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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892 FXUS61 KRLX 010655 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 255 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives Wednesday. Semi- stationary cold front expected on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 834 PM Sunday... The cold front is now crossing southeastern parts of the county warning area, and dew points are falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures will begin to tumble after sunset. Minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dew points to account for the latest progression of the front. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time. Should be a comfortable night to step outside and get some fresh air. As of 125 PM Sunday... This afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible ahead of and along a cold front that is currently making its way across West Virginia. Meanwhile, to the west of the Ohio River, post-frontal northwest flow is beginning to transport drier air into the area. The front will exit to the east this evening while high pressure builds in from the north, resulting in tranquil weather and clearing skies for tonight. Overnight temperatures will be much cooler, with lows expected to range from low to mid 50s in the lowlands and mid 40s to low 50s along the mountains. High pressure remains in control at the surface on Monday, with dry air and unseasonably mild temperatures making for a sunny and rather pleasant day. High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Monday... Beginning Tuesday, there will be southerly flow going into effect along with mostly clear skies and high pressure which will all bring temperatures back up to above normal for this time of year. Temperatures will continue to climb into Wednesday although high pressure at the surface will fleet toward the east, but we will have upper level ridging slowing down the next system to approach from the west Wednesday. This system will bring a cold front into the area by Wednesday night bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front will hang up across the area into Thursday due to high pressure south of the area creating weak zonal flow parallel to the front. Southeasterly flow will be orientated almost perpendicular to the front which will bring in moisture creating more potential for shower activity along with heavy downpours which could cause some excessive rainfall and localized flooding issues. If the 850mb flow becomes more southerly then a Maddox upper level ridge pattern setup may come forth bringing a greater risk for flash flooding. Due to weak upper level flow and the frontal boundary orientated west to east along the 500mb ridge axis this pattern is known to be associated with many flash flood events. This occurs related to synoptic scale subsidence suppressing convection which allows diabatic heating processes to steepen lapse rates and also accumulate an abundant amount of moisture. These frontal types are common during the warm season when dynamics are weak. With moisture in the upper levels on Thursday this could spark some training cells along the frontal boundary which could promote more flash flooding potential into Friday when the front finally lifts out due to the next system from entering the region bringing another front which will be more north to south orientated. The heaviest rainfall will be on the warm side of the front or near the 500mb large-scale ridge axis with dewpoint depression 5 degrees C or less. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... The aforementioned front on Friday associated with another system coming from the northwest will drags its cold front through late Friday night into Saturday. The good news is this feature will push the semi-stationary boundary out, however with two frontal boundaries interacting in the manner that the models are displaying will create another day of excessive rainfall potential which may lead to water issues, but this far out things could change for the better. So we have an active weather pattern continuing through the weekend with a short break possibly on Sunday. Thereafter, more activity is hinted by the long rang models, however that far out and with model inconsistency elected to accept central guidance which equated to low chances for shower and thunderstorm activity, mostly diurnal, for the rest of this period and beyond through day 8 (Monday). && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 AM Monday... Expect for the most part VFR conditions prevailing through the period courtesy of a broad surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The exception will be for MVFR low stratus about 2500 feet developing along the northern mountains and western foothills and affecting CKB, EKN and BKW during the overnight hours. Expect these clouds to gradually dissipate by 14Z Monday. Winds at 10 knots or less will prevail across most sites, gusting up to 17 knots at EKN, CRW and HTS through at least 09Z. Then, winds should subside some as the atmosphere tries to decouple. Monday will bring continued northerly winds and VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings could be more widespread than anticipated through 14Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/01/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L H M M M M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...ARJ