598
FXUS61 KRLX 030707
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather through this afternoon. Chance
of rain arrives late this afternoon and tonight. More active
weather is expected on Thursday and Friday with cold fronts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 307 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Heat Advisory in effect for portions of NE KY, SE OH and
   central, northern southern and western WV from noon through
   8 PM this evening.

 * There is a marginal risk for severe weather over SE OH through
   tonight.

 * There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall over SE OH
   through tonight.

Today, dry weather conditions remains under the influence of a high
pressure located off the Mid Atlantic coast. South to southwest
flow will bring warm and moist air advection, destabilizing the
atmosphere ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front
stalls just to our west, keeping the area under the warm sector.
Dewpoints are expected to rise into the lower 70s. With afternoon
temperatures reaching the mid 90s across the lowlands, heat
index values may exceed 100 this afternoon over NE KY, SE OH and
portions of the WV lowlands. Therefore, a heat advisory has
been issued for portions of NE KY, SE OH, and central, northern,
southern and western WV through this evening.

A passing upper level short wave will provide the necessary
forcing to trigger convection late this afternoon and evening.
Under an environment of SB CAPE values of 1,500 to 2,200 J/Kg,
deep layered shear from 20 to 30 knots, and PWATs increasing
from 1.5 to 2.22 inches, expect strong to severe convection
developing mainly during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Local soundings show tall/skinny CAPE signatures. Together with
PWATs exceeding 2 inches, thunderstorms will be capable to
produce very heavy downpours along their path. WPC has outlooked
SE OH under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through
tonight.

Hi-res CAMs suggest strong convection reaching the Mid OH
valley around by 21Z or 00Z Thursday, spreading east across WV
while dissipating. Consequently, SPC has placed SE Ohio in a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for this timeframe. A more
stable atmosphere will remains in WV, northeast KY, and
southwest VA suppressing any convection that manage to survive
over these areas later tonight.

The south-southwesterly wind will make it a hotter day with
temperatures reaching the lower 90s in the lowlands. A muggy night
is anticipated with temperatures and dewpoints from the mid 60s
mountains, into the lower 70s lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

  * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with cold front.

  * Some storms could be strong or severe.

  * There is a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday.

  * There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday.

Stationary front across Ohio gains some steam and slowly moves
eastward across the area Thursday. Showers and storms will
overspread the area as through out the day as it makes its eastward
journey. Some storms will be strong or severe with damaging winds
and maybe some hail. SPC has the entire forecast area outlooked for
a marginal risk of severe weather.

NAM shows some fairly impressive CAPE (SB,ML and MU) profiles
between 1,000-3,000 J/Kg across the area Thursday during peak
heating. Values greater than 3,000 J/Kg could exist in a CAPE bulge
across the southern coalfields in the afternoon and this could be an
area to watch for higher risk of severe thunderstorms. Some
uncertainty exists with whether these values will come to fruition
as cloud cover could exist throughout the day preventing
temperatures from being too hot and creating a cap for any strong
convection. Regardless, temperatures look to be in the mid to high
80s across the lowlands with the mountains ranging between the mid
70s and mid 80s. These temperatures will be dependent on the amount
of clearing that occurs.

Surface to 500MB bulk shear looks to remain confined across our SE
Ohio counties and along the Ohio River until later in the afternoon
as the front and surface low push through. Values are forecasted to
be between 30-45kts across this area, which is decent enough to
maintain storm longevity and provide at least a minuscule tornado
threat depending on the positioning of a surface low or vort max;
the main threats remain to be damaging winds and small hail though.

Heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this system as it is
slow moving and precipitable water will be around 2.00" inches
across the bulk of the area, which is a decent amount of water. As a
result, LCLs look to be fairly low (500 to 1,000 meters)resulting in
lower cloud bases. Localized to isolated flash flooding issues will
be on the table, especially for areas that receive a lot of rain
Wednesday night. WPC has the entire area outlooked for a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

A warm front will be to our north early Friday with another
cold front west of the area. This front is expected to move
through later on Friday into Saturday with showers and
thunderstorms expected from Friday into Saturday. A dry spell
looks likely from late Saturday into early Monday as this front
exits.

Temperatures will also be above normal through the long-term
forecast. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across the typical lowland hot spots into next week. Heat
indices will be around 100 degrees for a few locations on Friday
due to high humidity, which could lead to a heat advisory being
issued.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 144 AM Wednesday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through
at least 00Z Thursday. Opted to remove dense fog development
and associated IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN during the predawn
hours due to clouds over the area preventing radiational
cooling to do its work.

After 12Z, VFR with light southwesterly winds. However, occasional
gusts in the teens will be possible after 15Z. Most of the area will
remain dry through the afternoon hours. Then, convection will fire
up ahead of an approaching cold front across SE OH by late afternoon
into the evening hours. Any strong shower or thunderstorms will
produce brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions along their path.
Terminals most likely to be affected will be PKB, HTS and CRW
around 00Z and thereafter. Thunderstorms will weaken to just
showers as they move into a more stable environment over the
eastern terminals.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Shallow dense fog may develop along the
Tygart river valley, including EKN late overnight.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 07/03/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     WVZ005>009-013>015-017-025-026.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     KYZ101>103.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...ARJ