Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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909 FXUS65 KRIW 080448 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1048 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and pleasant weather across the Cowboy State today. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening but are expected to mainly remain in the high elevations of central and northern WY. - A potent area of high pressure begins to build over the region for the upcoming week with temperatures gradually increasing. - Near record breaking heat possible by the second half of the week with highs in the upper 90s. Some areas may even see highs meet or exceed 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A much welcomed change of pace across the Cowboy State today, with cool temperatures and pleasant weather. Highs are forecast to be below normal for many with much of the CWA seeing temperatures in the 70s. Similar to yesterday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. However, they will be mostly isolated in nature and look to mainly remain along the high elevations of the central and northern CWA. An isolated shower is possible in the lower elevations of Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties but chances are slim, ranging from (10-30%) with the best chances near Casper and Kaycee. Strong gusty outflow winds are possible with any developing showers or thunderstorms but impacts are likely to remain limited and minimal due to a moister environment compared to yesterday. The upcoming week will see a return to hot mid-summer heat, as a potent high pressure builds over the region. The heat will gradually build through the week with the hottest temperatures forecast to develop by the second half of the week. Monday and Tuesday will see near seasonable temperatures across the CWA with most seeing highs in the 80s. West of the Divide can expect to see highs in the low to mid 80s with areas east of the Divide seeing values in the mid 80s to low 90s. Wednesday looks to be the start of the real heat as the center of the high makes its way over the Great Basin. The eastern edge of the high will start to move into western WY during this time. Models are showing some nasty heat associated with this potent high. Above normal 700 MB temperatures start to move into the state, with values near 20C making their way into western WY. These values would likely translate to surface temperatures near or exceeding 90 degrees in places such as Jackson Hole, Star Valley and the Upper Green River Basin. 700 MB temperatures in the upper teens are forecast for the remainder of the CWA, meaning hot surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Models are continuing to show near record breaking heat for the second half of the week. Temperatures will continue to gradually increase through the remainder of the week as the center of the high slides east. The end of the week will see the high just to the south of the CWA, with some of the hottest temperatures expected for Friday and Saturday. Models are showing 700 MB temperatures on these days ranging from 20-23C over most of the CWA, especially central locations. If this does actually occur, surface temperatures would likely near or exceed 100F in areas east of the Divide. Those to the west of the Divide will still see hot, above normal temperatures, with surface values in the low to mid 90s. Western valleys such as Jackson Hole could likely see highs in the mid 90s nearing record values. Models are generally in consensus regarding this near record breaking heat for next week. The NBM is showing a (20-50%) chance of seeing 100 degrees or higher temperatures from thursday to Saturday in parts of the central and eastern CWA. Western valleys such as Jackson Hole and Star Valley have a (30-50%) chance of seeing highs meet or exceed 95 degrees. The Green River Basin and the remainder of the southern CWA have a (40-70%) chance of seeing highs greater than 90 degrees. As mentioned before, early indications are showing there is a chance that some records may be in jeopardy of being tied or broken. Overall, this high pressure definitely means business with many records already being broken in parts of the Western CONUS. The upcoming week will need to be monitored to see what degree of heat we see in our CWA. For now, enjoy the cool weather today, as we will likely see some of the hottest temperatures so far this year by the second half of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure building in brings relatively light wind to the area, with only a little wind increase during the peak mixing of the afternoon Monday. Otherwise, a mostly clear sky with some afternoon clouds. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Wittmann