799
FXUS65 KRIW 050904
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
304 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest flow continues the agitated weather across northern
  Wyoming through the upcoming weekend.

- Strong ridge builds back across the Intermountain West next
  week, noting a return to very warm and dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The broad trough that has dominated the central US the past
several days is slowly showing signs of breaking down, but not
before throwing a couple more impulses into northeast WY through
this weekend. Short range models note a fast moving impulse
moving across MT into far NE WY this afternoon and evening,
which will bring enough instability to spark a few showers,
mainly limited to the highest elevations of the Bighorn Range.
The next impulse is more broad in nature and will dive farther
south across the state during the day Saturday. The main focus
of convection will be east of the Divide during peak heating
Saturday, lingering across Natrona and Johnson County into
Sunday.

After this trough sweeps to the southeast Sunday, the West Coast
ridge shifts east and sets up along the spine of the Rockies.
This will deflect most activity more into Canada, while allowing
strong heating to build across Wyoming through the week. Highs
will build into the upper 80s and 90s by Tuesday, with upper 90s
likely by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1005 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will occur through the TAF period. There is a
chance (20%) that showers/thunderstorms could impact KCPR at the
start of the forecast, but these impacts are expected to last
very briefly. Lightning will likely be the main impact as well.
Otherwise, light winds and SKC skies in place through the rest
of the morning. Wind gusts around 25 kt will return to most
terminals again Friday afternoon, subsiding after 01Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across southern fire
zones this week. The worst day will be Saturday as wind increases
ahead of the next weather system and RH will drop into the teens in
the afternoon. Isolated rain showers will pass through northern
zones today, but the CWR is very low. Smoke dispersal looks to be at
least very good in the afternoon for the next few days at a
minimum. As temperatures increase next week it will become very
dry. RH values look like they will be in the low teens (possibly
upper single digits) for most lower elevations. High pressure
will keep it dry, with little to no chance of precip expected
for most of next week, at this time. The saving grace is wind
will be much lighter than it has been so far this summer thanks
to the area of high pressure.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...LaVoie
FIRE WEATHER...Rowe