Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
745 FXUS65 KRIW 011745 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1145 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front today brings cooler temperatures and rain chances, mainly across the northern half of Wyoming. - Rain chances for northern Wyoming through midweek, with cool temperatures. - Warm and dry conditions looking more likely into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A cold front moves through the area today. As a result, it will be noticeably cooler, especially compared to the highs yesterday that were in the 90s for many locations, with a few 100s noted. Highs today peak in the 70s for most, with some low 80s in central Wyoming. This front also brings the chance of rain. As it sweeps through the area this morning, a line of showers and storms accompanies it. The most likely places to get rain are across northern Wyoming. As the line tracks southeastward, lesser chances occur over the basins, such as the Green River and Wind River Basins; chances for these places are more in the 20% to 30% range. The best chances continue across the northern part of the state through the day as broad trough influences the area. Outside an isolated (about 20% chance) shower, southern Wyoming should remain dry. Some of the storms across the north (mainly the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County) could be on the stronger side, with gusty outflow wind or hail. The better chances for strong to severe storms occurs towards Johnson County and northern Natrona County. A tight pressure gradient persists today as well, with afternoon wind gusts 30 to 40 mph across the Wind Corridor, and lesser gusts elsewhere. These gusts decrease into tonight. Precipitation continues across the north tonight as the broad trough remains in place. They should be on a decreasing trend, however, by Tuesday morning. Isolated (15% to 30%) chances continue across the north Tuesday, mainly over the mountains. Highs Tuesday will be similar to that of today, maybe a few degrees higher. An upper-low moving down from Canada and into the Dakotas brings moisture ahead of it on Wednesday. Rain chances (20% to 50%) occur over far northern Wyoming during the afternoon and evening. This also brings a breezy to windy afternoon. As this low continues to move down, cooler air makes its way into the area for Thursday, with highs back into the 70s. Rain chances also continue across the north and portions of central Wyoming. The night of the 4th is currently looking dry as the afternoon convection ends around sunset Thursday, but some lingering showers cannot be ruled out at this time. High pressure begins to build in over the western U.S. for this weekend, favoring warmer and drier conditions. Long range models are showing the possibility for some systems to pass over eastern Wyoming, which may bring some rain chances; confidence is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A weather system, with an associated cold front is passing through the area today. As a result scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop/have developed and will continue to develop across the northern half of the area this afternoon through tonight. Terminals most likely to be impacted by these showers and storms are KJAC, KCOD, and KWRL where TEMPO groups are included in the TAFs. The cold front is passing through the area this afternoon/evening and wind will shift northerly once it passes. An area of rain is likely (60- 70%) to pass over KCOD early Tuesday morning. Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period, excluding terminals where a thunderstorm moves directly overhead, which will result in reductions in VIS to MVFR (possibly IFR 20-30% chance). Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Rowe