Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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789 FXUS65 KRIW 011952 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 152 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms across north-central Wyoming through this evening. Large hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning are the primary concerns in the strongest storms. - Continued cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances through mid-week across northern Wyoming. - Warm, dry, and breezy conditions expected across south-central and southwest Wyoming through the next week. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions in areas with cured fuels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As the cold front is draped across Wyoming, rain showers and thunderstorms have been observed, as well as wind gusts along and behind the front of 30 to 40 mph, even higher in wind prone areas and from thunderstorm outflow. While the main shower and thunderstorm activity will be up in north-central Wyoming, a few showers and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near the I-80 corridor east of Rock Springs. Up in north-central Wyoming there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms where HiRes guidance is showing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35-45 knots of bulk shear, which is substantial to sustain convection. Based on the latest HiRes model runs, the most likely time frame for the strongest storms in north-central Wyoming is from 2 PM to 6 PM. Showers will linger overnight and through Tuesday morning as another shortwave pushes through northern Wyoming. While there is still the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday, the severe parameters are much more limited, especially the instability, so any thunderstorms that do develop will likely not be severe. The main shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease through Tuesday evening. Headed into the Independence Day holiday, the Riverton forecast area is positioned along the east side of an upper-level ridge as multiple shortwaves are embedded in the flow. This will help moderate temperatures and keep them, on average, near-normal. In addition, there are chances for showers and thunderstorm each afternoon through Thursday, particularly across the northern half of Wyoming. Across the High Desert Region, warm temperatures, low afternoon relative humidity values, and gusty winds will create critical fire weather conditions where the fuels are cured and ready to burn. Due to the timing of these conditions being near the 4th of July, caution is recommended if opting to participate in the festivities. Following the shortwave passage on the 4th of July, the upper-level ridge shifts eastward, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation chances headed into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A weather system, with an associated cold front is passing through the area today. As a result scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will develop/have developed and will continue to develop across the northern half of the area this afternoon through tonight. Terminals most likely to be impacted by these showers and storms are KJAC, KCOD, and KWRL where TEMPO groups are included in the TAFs. The cold front is passing through the area this afternoon/evening and wind will shift northerly once it passes. An area of rain is likely (60- 70%) to pass over KCOD early Tuesday morning. Conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period, excluding terminals where a thunderstorm moves directly overhead, which will result in reductions in VIS to MVFR (possibly IFR 20-30% chance). Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gross AVIATION...Rowe