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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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413 FXUS65 KRIW 020447 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1047 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms across north-central Wyoming through this evening. Large hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning are the primary concerns in the strongest storms. - Continued cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances through mid-week across northern Wyoming. - Warm, dry, and breezy conditions expected across south-central and southwest Wyoming through the next week. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions in areas with cured fuels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As the cold front is draped across Wyoming, rain showers and thunderstorms have been observed, as well as wind gusts along and behind the front of 30 to 40 mph, even higher in wind prone areas and from thunderstorm outflow. While the main shower and thunderstorm activity will be up in north-central Wyoming, a few showers and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near the I-80 corridor east of Rock Springs. Up in north-central Wyoming there is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms where HiRes guidance is showing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and 35-45 knots of bulk shear, which is substantial to sustain convection. Based on the latest HiRes model runs, the most likely time frame for the strongest storms in north-central Wyoming is from 2 PM to 6 PM. Showers will linger overnight and through Tuesday morning as another shortwave pushes through northern Wyoming. While there is still the potential for thunderstorms Tuesday, the severe parameters are much more limited, especially the instability, so any thunderstorms that do develop will likely not be severe. The main shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease through Tuesday evening. Headed into the Independence Day holiday, the Riverton forecast area is positioned along the east side of an upper-level ridge as multiple shortwaves are embedded in the flow. This will help moderate temperatures and keep them, on average, near-normal. In addition, there are chances for showers and thunderstorm each afternoon through Thursday, particularly across the northern half of Wyoming. Across the High Desert Region, warm temperatures, low afternoon relative humidity values, and gusty winds will create critical fire weather conditions where the fuels are cured and ready to burn. Due to the timing of these conditions being near the 4th of July, caution is recommended if opting to participate in the festivities. Following the shortwave passage on the 4th of July, the upper-level ridge shifts eastward, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation chances headed into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1046 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Ongoing convection over central Wyoming should diminish between 08Z- 10Z/Tuesday, but may linger until 12Z. Elsewhere, a shortwave taking shape across northwest Wyoming will track east-southeast through the state until around 15Z/Tuesday. An area of showers and a thunderstorm or two will accompany the wave and primarily impact KCOD, KWRL, and then KCPR as it traverses the region. Conditions remain VFR at all terminals despite this convection. Cloud cover decreases from west-to-east late tonight through Tuesday morning. A few weak showers develop over the far north Tuesday afternoon, but it appears isolated and nature and have no terminal impacts in this forecast. West to northwest surface wind increases at the southwest terminals between 16Z-19Z/Tuesday, but it takes a bit longer to mix at KCPR and KRIW. Winds and cloud cover decrease at sunset Tuesday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gross AVIATION...Jones