Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
234 FXUS65 KRIW 051642 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1042 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northwest flow continues the agitated weather across northern Wyoming through the upcoming weekend. - Strong ridge builds back across the Intermountain West next week, noting a return to very warm and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The broad trough that has dominated the central US the past several days is slowly showing signs of breaking down, but not before throwing a couple more impulses into northeast WY through this weekend. Short range models note a fast moving impulse moving across MT into far NE WY this afternoon and evening, which will bring enough instability to spark a few showers, mainly limited to the highest elevations of the Bighorn Range. The next impulse is more broad in nature and will dive farther south across the state during the day Saturday. The main focus of convection will be east of the Divide during peak heating Saturday, lingering across Natrona and Johnson County into Sunday. After this trough sweeps to the southeast Sunday, the West Coast ridge shifts east and sets up along the spine of the Rockies. This will deflect most activity more into Canada, while allowing strong heating to build across Wyoming through the week. Highs will build into the upper 80s and 90s by Tuesday, with upper 90s likely by Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1041 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Northwest flow continues through the TAF period, which will bring some rain showers to northern Wyoming this afternoon/evening as well as Saturday afternoon/evening. Terminals impacted by these showers will be KCOD/KWRL/KCPR, mainly this evening. Have included TEMPO/PROB30 groups to account for these rain showers. Conditions should remain VFR even as showers pass over these terminals and at other terminals where skies will remain mostly clear. A breeze will develop this afternoon, but gusts will only be 15-20 knots on average through this afternoon/evening. Wind becomes light overnight before increasing again late Saturday morning as the next wave in the flow drops down into northern Wyoming. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across southern fire zones this week. The worst day will be Saturday as wind increases ahead of the next weather system and RH will drop into the teens in the afternoon. Isolated rain showers will pass through northern zones today, but the CWR is very low. Smoke dispersal looks to be at least very good in the afternoon for the next few days at a minimum. As temperatures increase next week it will become very dry. RH values look like they will be in the low teens (possibly upper single digits) for most lower elevations. High pressure will keep it dry, with little to no chance of precip expected for most of next week, at this time. The saving grace is wind will be much lighter than it has been so far this summer thanks to the area of high pressure. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Rowe FIRE WEATHER...Rowe