Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
653 FXUS65 KREV 140910 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 210 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, with continued fire weather concerns. * More typical July warmth is expected through much of this week. * A warming trend looks likely next weekend as a ridge re- amplifies over the western US. && .DISCUSSION... Latest radar imagery shows light showers ongoing along the Sierra Front and into the Basin & Range early this morning. Light showers will continue through the mid-morning, though extremely dry low- levels evident on yesterday`s afternoon sounding suggest these showers are producing little in the way of accumulations. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, as we remain wedged between a closed low off the coast of central California and an area of high pressure over the Four Corners. For fire weather concerns, please see the Fire Weather section below. Coverage appears similar to what we saw yesterday, with scatted storms expanding in coverage from south to north through the day. Storms today will have even more moisture to tap into, with forecast soundings indicating PWATs upwards of an inch across the region. As such, locally heavy rainfall will be more of a concern today. However, storm motions appear fast enough (15-25 mph) to moderate the risk for flash flooding. Storms today will again be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 60 mph given DCAPE values 1000-1600 J/kg per forecast soundings. The wrench in the forecast for today will be the high PWATs over the area, which can sometimes inhibit thunderstorm development if cloud cover persists through the morning. However, latest satellite imagery shows an area of dry air entraining into the region from the south early this morning, which should allow skies to clear out sufficiently later this morning. So, keeping high confidence for thunderstorm development today in this morning`s forecast. A trough begins to sneak into the Pacific Northwest on Monday, bringing a drier southwesterly flow regime over the region. However, lingering moisture and instability on Monday will allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening, with greatest chances along the Sierra crest eastward into the Sierra Front and Eastern Sierra. Storm chances drop off significantly on Tuesday through the remainder of the work week as we remain under the influence of the trough. Temperatures will also remain moderated to near or just above seasonal averages through the week. The trough over the Pacific Northwest retreats westward off the coast near the end of the week as the Four Corners High re-amplifies. A warming trend looks likely once again as we head into the weekend, with triple digit heat back on the table by Saturday for western Nevada valleys. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also return mainly to Mono and Mineral counties by next weekend. Whitlam && .AVIATION... * Light showers ongoing this morning across the Sierra Front and Basin & Range may produce brief lowering of CIG/VIS and terrain obscuration through around 12z. * Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening. Storms will begin over Mono County around 18z, spreading northward through the evening before tapering off around 04z. Storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty and erratic outflow winds to 50 kt, and small hail for all regional terminals. Whitlam && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening for the Eastern Sierra, northeast California, and western Nevada. Though storms today will have a good amount of moisture to tap into, moderate to fast storm motions will lead to limited wetting rains and the potential for dry lightning strikes once again today. Sufficiently dry lower levels with steep lapse rates will also promote the threat for gusty and erratic outflow winds to 60 mph this afternoon and evening. Winds may impact the areas of new fire starts from yesterday, with locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and frequent lightning also potentially impacting firefighting efforts across the region. Whitlam && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421-423-429-458. CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ270>272-274-278. && $$