


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
822 FXUS65 KREV 092123 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 223 PM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty afternoon winds and dry conditions continue to bring areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather today. Brief chances of isolated PM thunderstorms are forecast near the Oregon border today. * Warming trend resumes Thursday, culminating in widespread heat impacts over the weekend. * Triple digit highs likely for lower valleys from Saturday into early next week, with moderate to locally major HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... In the latest RAP upper air analysis, an upper air low is moving across northeastern CA and into the CWA today. Current surface observations and satellite imagery report dry conditions persisting underneath sunny skies. Forecast guidance shows the low moving across the northern portion of the CWA and along the OR border later today and going through the night. As a result of this low, increased winds with gusts up to around 30-35 mph are forecast this afternoon and evening for areas along the Sierra Front as well as in the western Basin and Range. With minimum relative humidity ranging between the lower teens and the single digits, elevated fire weather concerns are to be expected with a few hours of locally critical possible in western NV (See Fire Weather Section for more details). It is also worth mentioning that the latest run of the HREF shows a slight chance (~15%) for an isolated thunderstorm in northern Washoe County between around 3-7 PM PT. While severe weather is not anticipated, dry lightning strikes are possible. The latest run of the HRRR`s near-surface smoke product also shows smoke from northern CA & OR wildfires moving into CWA portions closer to the OR border tonight, so that may be something to consider especially those that are sensitive to wildfire smoke. Daytime high temperatures today are forecast to be a few degrees lower than those seen yesterday with valley areas seeing temperatures top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s range while the Sierra Mountain communities will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Going through the rest of the week, high pressure is forecast to build over the Southwestern CONUS. With this pattern coming up, model guidance shows a warming trend where western NV valleys will experience highs in the upper 90s by Friday followed by some areas seeing the other side of the century mark beginning on Saturday. Higher elevations in the Sierra expect to reach the upper 80s on Friday and then cross over into the lower 90s on Saturday. Dry conditions look to prevail with this setup as well with winds being on the lighter side with the typical afternoon breezes across the area. Going into next week, the primary concern looks to be the hot temperatures as the latest HeatRisk shows areas of major HeatRisk increasing in western NV on Sunday through Tuesday with widespread moderate HeatRisk for most of the CWA. Western NV valley areas will range between the lower and middle 100s on these days while the higher elevations in the Sierra portions of the CWA expect to be in the lower to middle 90s range. With major HeatRisk in the forecast, it would be a good idea to check your cooling systems now in case they need some maintenance as they will be getting a workout with these hot temperatures. When looking at the latest NBM probabilities, there is currently a 15-25% chance that the Reno-Tahoe International Airport sets a new record high temperature on Sunday and Monday for their calendar dates (current records being 103F on 7/13 and 105F on 7/14 for reference). Please prepare now and check out some heat safety tips at weather.gov/heat. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue today and tonight while areas closest to the OR border see a ~15% chance for an isolated thunderstorms between 9/22Z-10/03Z. Most area terminals see gusts up to around 20-25 kts this afternoon with KMMH seeing up to around 30 kts. Area winds are forecast to start to diminish around 10/03-05Z. Triple digit heat returns this weekend, raising potential density altitude issues for aircraft. -078 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns are expected today with some portions of western NV seeing a few hours of localized critical fire weather. West to northwesterly winds gusting up to around 25-30 mph (wind prone areas seeing up to around 35 mph possible) and minimum RH values between 5-15% are forecast within the area. Areas closest to the OR border see a slight chance (~15%) for isolated dry thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Overnight RH recoveries look to only rise to around 30-35% within western NV tonight. Lesser winds are expected for tomorrow which may prevent the critical fire weather criteria from being met though minimum RH values look to be down to around 10%. Increased winds do not look to be in forecast through the weekend, but it will be dry and hot with valley areas within the region reaching and surpassing the 100 degree mark starting on Saturday and going into next week. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$