089
FXUS65 KREV 021931
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1231 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* High pressure brings a prolonged heatwave starting on Wednesday
  through early next week.

* Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees above average by the
  weekend resulting in a moderate to major HeatRisk.

* It will remain very dry with typical afternoon breezes, and a
  very low chance, less than 5%, for precipitation in the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Pacific ridge that has been lurking off the coast will be the
main weather feature to concern us this week into next. As the ridge
migrates over the Great Basin, we will see an impactful warming
trend building in. While today appears to be our brief break ahead
of the warmup, highs in western Nevada valleys will top out in the
mid to upper 90s for most locations. Sierra valleys will even see
upper 80s to low 90s in some locations today. This is the literal
warm-up to our upcoming warmup.

All guidance is in agreement that this will be a hot stretch of days
for our July 4th holiday into the holiday weekend. Western Nevada
valleys are in for a long duration of 100+ degree days, and as
for the Sierra communities, expect 90 degrees or greater.
Probabilities of over 105 degrees in western NV are 40-80% over
the weekend. For this reason, an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect
from Saturday through Wednesday morning.

It sure will be tempting to jump into cooler waters of area
lakes and streams. Expect waters to be comparatively chilly,
possibly cold enough for shock. Be sure to wear buoyant life vests
near chilly waters. Speaking of water, make sure to stay well-
hydrated over the entire week, and take frequent breaks in shaded or
air conditioned areas if you plan to be outdoors during the heat.
Make sure to look before you lock your vehicles, checking for
children and pets. And of course if you are planning to be outdoors,
make sure to wear loose, light colored clothing and sunscreen on
exposed skin.

The hottest day this weekend looks to be on Sunday, with the best
probabilities to see 105+ in western Nevada valleys. How long
will this last? Well, we do see some slight downward trend
beginning Monday, but still keeping us well above average and in
triple digits through the end of next week. In checking with the
Climate Prediction Center`s 8-14 day outlook, the trend is to keep
the heat going at least into mid-July.

Our only caveat to this excessive heat is that when we have seen
this type of heat lingering over our area in the past, it can bring
about clouds and sometimes precipitation. If we do see clouds on any
given day, we could see our high temperatures settle in just below
the forecasted values. Of course this will also apply if we see any
showers form in these clouds. Any showers that form would be light
and short-lived.

Breezes throughout this week and into next will remain of the
typical afternoon zephyr variety. Relative humidity will be
ranging 10-12% or lower through this period as well, so take extra
caution around sparks, fires and BBQs this week. Check towing
chains to prevent sparks near roadsides, and be vigilant for new
fire starts. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR flying conditions today, and through the forecast period. Light,
variable winds will become breezy, with gusts 15-20 kts possible
each afternoon. The heat that will build over the region for midweek
may bring about density altitude concerns that may persist into
next week and beyond. HRICH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The heat is on, and with it will come further drying of fuels.
Afternoon highs will reach 10-20 degrees above normal this weekend.
Relative humidities will range the low teens to single digits
through the holiday weekend, and perhaps beyond. Overnight RH
recoveries will be poor to very poor. The winds are the only thing
that stays below a threshold for critical fire weather conditions to
arise. Gusts of up to 30 mph are possible in the afternoons. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday
     morning NVZ001-003>005.

CA...None.
&&

$$