420
FXUS62 KRAH 081940
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
338 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and upper level high pressure will build over the area through
mid week, before another cold front approaches Wednesday night. This
front will then stall out and hold over the western and central
Carolinas through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 338 PM Monday...

A weak mid-level MCV continues to slowly spiral across our Southern
Piedmont and Sandhills region this afternoon promoting some isolated
convection in this vicinity. Further east, isolated convection along
the sea breeze continues to migrate northward, but the better
coverage will likely stay to our east. Overall, coverage has been
fairly limited and weak so far today across central NC. Given little
sfc forcing, this limited coverage trend should continue into the
overnight period. Expect isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two
generally across the Piedmont/Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain
through this evening. Otherwise, drier conditions can be expected
overnight.

Overnight lows will remain warm in the mid 70s, with some patchy fog
possible especially across southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Very little changes with our weather pattern, and again expect
convective coverage to peak at scattered, focused across our west
sections and southeast. The narrow mid-upper level ridge continues
to build across central NC, while a diffuse MSLP pattern with weak
surface winds and continued dewpoints mostly in the 70s will
contribute to a weak wind profile through the column and, once
again, slow-moving and outflow-driven convective clusters that could
drop isolated heavy rain. With higher res models like the RAP and
HREF members showing lower storm coverage and an earlier demise than
what we`ve seen the last couple of days, the resulting reduction in
convective debris clouds that might hinder heating combined with
thicknesses about 5-8 m above normal suggests that we`ll see temps a
bit warmer than today. Expect highs in the low-mid 90s which will
push HeatRisk into the high-end Moderate and low-end Major
categories. Lows will again be mostly in the 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 308 AM Monday...

* Typical summertime pattern through the extended with high humidity
* Hottest temperatures Wed/Sun and lowest highs Fri
* Highest shower/storm chances Thu into Sat

The remnants of Beryl, after interacting with a mid-level shortwave
trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest, will be located somewhere
near IL/IN by early Wed. Little has changed with its overall track,
with most ensemble and deterministic solutions taking this area of
low pressure ENE into the Great Lakes and Canada by Thu/Fri. The
system will bring a cold front near the area late Wed night to early
Thu across the western NC mountains and then is still forecast to
stall along or just west of the area into Sat.

With the front not approaching until late Wed across the west, we
will have another day of hot and humid conditions midweek as
southerly flow remains well entrenched, if not more so. Heat indices
could meet or exceed 105 in portions of the Triangle and Sandhills,
with highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints near the low to mid
70s. Scattered showers and storms appear favored in the aftn/eve,
especially across the west with the approaching front and pre-
frontal trough.

As the front gets hung up and stalls along or just west of the
Piedmont Thu, guidance continues to show an area of low pressure
forming along the SE US and riding up along the boundary through
central/eastern NC late Thu into early Sat. This area of low
pressure could be convectively induced as an MCV and/or through some
interaction with an upper-level shortwave tracking toward the
Carolinas from the western Atlantic. Either way, during this time,
there continues to be deep moisture transport and anomalous PWATs of
2.1-2.3 inches (normals are about 1.4-1.5 in) to couple to the low-
level frontal/trough convergence. WPC is currently placing our area
in a Level 1 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Fri/Sat and
this is quite reasonable given the mentioned factors. This will
continue to be monitored as we get closer. As such, our highest rain
chances still appear to be Thu into Sat.

By the weekend, we will see more typical diurnal shower/storm
chances, though somewhat drier conditions should take hold by Sun as
WSW flow ensues with a trough axis building in from the west and
ridging off the western Atlantic reasserting itself. A more typical
lee trough looks to take over at the surface, with PoPs more toward
climo.

Temperature wise after Wed, highs trend to the 80s on Fri,
coincident with highest rain chances. A return to the 90s, and
consequently heat indices above 100, look in store Sat/Sun as the
ridge builds back west with lesser rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 228 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will largely prevail at all TAF sites over the next
several hours. However, brief periods of sub-VFR conditions will be
possible from isolated showers/storms through this evening. Coverage
overall, however, should be less compared to recent days. Fog and
stratus appear possible tonight, primarily over the southern/western
Piedmont (i.e. best chances for sub-VFR conditions at
KFAY/KINT/KGSO). Any fog/stratus should lift by late Tuesday
morning. Shower and storm chances on Tuesday should be fairly
limited to the coast and mountain areas.

Outlook: Coverage in showers/storms should be fairly limited again
on Tuesday into early Wednesday. A boundary will stall over the area
Thursday into the weekend inducing increasingly wet weather and
potential for adverse aviation conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

July 10:
KRDU: 99/1993

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 8:
KGSO: 76/2010
KRDU: 78/1986
KFAY: 79/2012

July 9:
KGSO: 76/1987
KRDU: 74/2014

July 10:
KGSO: 77/1981
KRDU: 77/1981
KFAY: 77/1998

July 11:
KGSO: 75/1992
KRDU: 77/1981
KFAY: 76/2019

July 12:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 80/1935

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-023>028-
040>043-076>078-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Luchetti
CLIMATE...RAH