


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
980 FXUS62 KRAH 080528 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will linger over the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 222 PM Monday... * Isolated storms this afternoon * Spotty areas where late-day heat indices could touch 105 degrees Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs show the remnants of Chantal well north of NC. In its wake, large scale subsidence (and dry weather) is in place across the area with little in the way of deep convective cloud cover to speak of (some isolated storms are noted in the mountains as well as across portions of northern SC). Temps generally range from the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s in the south, although dewpoints are pretty uniformly in the low to mid 70s. For the rest of the afternoon hours, a few spots could see heat indices briefly touch 105 degrees, although this should not be widespread and not of any great duration. Meanwhile, the 00Z and 12Z HREF aren`t overly enthusiastic about precip chances today, which makes sense given large scale post-TC subsidence. A stray, short lived shower or storm can`t be ruled out over the western Piedmont as well as the Sandhills, but these should dissipate quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, conditions should be dry with PoPs of 5-10 percent or less this evening, dropping to near 0 late tonight Overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 222 PM Monday... * Heat indices of 105 to 109 expected across portions of central NC, and a Heat Advisory has been issued. * Marginal risk of both flash flooding and severe weather Tuesday`s weather will see Bermuda high pressure to our east with weak surface troughing across central NC. Return flow around the high will allow very warm/humid air to overspread much of central NC tomorrow, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s and dewpoints following suit into the mid/upper 70s. This in turn should result in heat indices ranging from 105-109 degrees from the Triangle southward along US-1 and eastward into the Coastal Plain. As such, we`re going to issue a Heat Advisory for these areas, and also include some of the counties that were particularly hard hit from the remnants of Chantal where recovery/cleanup efforts remain ongoing and outdoor activities may be more widespread than usual. Peak timing for dangerous heat indices will be from 10am to 8pm. Meanwhile with surface troughing across central NC and abundant moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms should make a return to the area. While there won`t be much in the way of synoptic forcing to drive convection, sea breeze convergence and convection rolling off the mountains should result in a fairly typical distribution of rainfall chances across the area. Inverted V soundings support an increased threat of damaging winds, and saturated soils support an increased threat of flash flooding (especially in the narrow strip of counties west of the Triangle due to Chantal`s rainfall). Both SPC and WPC have central NC highlighted with Marginal Risk for severe weather and flooding respectively. Peak storm timing from 2- 8pm, dropping off considerably with the loss of daytime heating. Daytime highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Triad to the mid 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows in the lower 70s (NW) to the mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 222 PM Monday... * Active pattern with daily scattered showers and storms each day, with highest chances Wed through Fri. Additional rainfall will favor flash flooding with ongoing saturated ground and elevated river levels over the Piedmont * Warm and humid with highs upper 80s to low 90s most of the period The synoptic pattern by the middle of the week will feature longwave troughing across the Ohio Valley along with a weak inverted trough well off the southeast coast. In between these two features, a broad plume of elevated PW`s will remain in place across central NC. There won`t be much in the way of a strong triggering mechanism outside of Piedmont troughing and sea breeze convergence, so the overall theme of Wednesday and Thursday should be one of slow moving scattered showers and thunderstorms with flooding rain and gusty winds as the primary hazards. By Friday, the longwave trough to our west should crest the mountains and make its way into central NC, which could support a round of more organized shower/storm activity. In the wake of the trough, westerly flow aloft should yield an overall decrease of storm coverage Saturday into early next week, with the highest storm chances in the western Piedmont with lesser chances farther east. Temps during the entire period should be within a few degrees of early/mid July normals, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Highs Thursday/Friday could be a bit lower given cloud cover but still in the upper 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 AM Tuesday... No major changes with the 06z TAF package as prevailing VFR is expected at all TAF sites with PROB30s for late afternoon storms and associated restrictions. We are watching an area of IFR/MVFR cigs pinned along the NC coast as some guidance suggest a period of SCT to perhaps BKN cigs may lift northward and affect FAY and RWI in the 10-14z window. Mixing after sunrise may additionally result in a short window of MVFR cigs at FAY before scattering/lifting to VFR by mid-morning. Outlook: Scattered storms are expected each afternoon and evening through Fri, as a weak upper trough slowly approaches from the west; greatest coverage through the outlook period may be Wed and Thurs. Early morning fog and/or stratus will also be possible. Storm coverage decreasing a bit this weekend as westerly flow aloft takes hold. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 815 PM Monday... River Flood Warnings remain in effect for a few locations across central NC. As of this evening, this includes the following: Haw River at Bynum Cape Fear at Lillington Little River At Manchester We are monitoring conditions along the Cape Fear at Fayetteville. Warnings may be needed for this point later tonight. In addition, we have issued a long duration Flood Warning for areas west of the Triangle to account for slowly receding flood waters. Areas along the Eno River as well as near Hyco Lake are experiencing ongoing flooding and it will likely be several more hours before water recedes. This is in addition to numerous low lying spots across the area. The flooding is the result of a narrow swath of heavy rainfall stretching from Hoke/Scotland Co northward to Person Co. Rainfall observations this morning suggest these areas saw a remarkable 5-11 inches of rainfall during the day Sunday. Significantly less rainfall was seen on either side of this corridor, with many locations east of I-95 and west of I-74 seeing less than an inch of rain. In addition to the numerous swift water rescues that occurred Sunday and Sunday night, the Haw River at Haw River crested just shy of its all time record this morning, while it appears the Haw River at Bynum did in fact reach a new record. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-023>028- 040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Leins NEAR TERM...Leins SHORT TERM...Leins LONG TERM...Leins AVIATION...Swiggett/MWS HYDROLOGY...Leins