250
FXUS62 KRAH 061815
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
215 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Chantal will weaken to a remnant low as it
drifts northeastward through central North Carolina this afternoon
through tonight. This low will exit to our northeast early Monday,
leaving behind a weak surface trough through central North Carolina
and above normal temperatures over our area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

* Flood Watch remains in effect for all but the northeast CWA
  through tonight.

* Risk of isolated weak tornadoes persists through the afternoon and
  early evening in the SE CWA.

The remnant low of what is now TD Chantal will continue to drive our
weather through tonight, as it tracks NNE through the forecast area.
The latest analysis shows the center near the SE edge of the CWA,
with the heavier rain having shifted to just N and NW of the center,
a trend which was first depicted on yesterday`s CAMs. The model
forecast rainfall and probabilities, including HREF neighborhood
probs of 1" and 3" in 3 hrs, agrees well with radar trends,
including recent instantaneous rain rates and ARIs. These indicators
along with the deep tropical moisture in place, including high PWs
near 2.5" and a deep LCL-0C layer, support maintaining the Flood
Watch, although we may be able to clear out the far SE (Coastal
Plain counties) by this evening. The fact that the low is moving is
good news, although training and pivoting rainbands and heavy
embedded deeper convection will still focus heavier totals in spots,
leading to isolated pockets and bands of torrential flooding rain.
Widespread 1-4" remains possible, with isolated 4-6", values we`ve
already seen in the last 6 hours near the Hoke/Scotland county line
according to MRMS data. The higher HREF NPs of higher amounts favor
the existing heavy rain area translating northward through the
western and central CWA, correlating well with the watch area.

The chance for quick spinups of weak tropical tornadoes persists as
well for the next several hours. Current 0-1 km shear and SRH are
maximized W-E through the central of the CWA, and where this area
overlaps with greater SBCAPE (~1500-2500 J/kg over the NE Piedmont
and N/C Coastal Plain) and CAPE advection will present the most
likely places for such spinups, particularly associated with
deepening updrafts within these tropical rainbands.

Will maintain high chance pops, likely to categorical, into the
evening, with a SW-to-NE downturn in pops later in the evening and
overnight, in line with the consensus of recent guidance. The low is
expected to shift just NE of the CWA near sunrise, so this area will
be the last to see lower pops. Considerable cloudiness will hold as
well, with areas of stratus likely. Lows from 69 to 75. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Chantal`s remnant low will continue to pull away from the NE CWA Mon
morning, so we may still see morning showers in the NE CWA where
high PWs will linger along with weak low level mass convergence. A
weak trailing trough is expected to extend through the heart of the
CWA through Mon night, with high dewpoints in the 70s lingering
along and E of the trough. With low to mid level flow from the W and
WNW, albeit light, to the west of the trough, the far W Piedmont may
mix out enough to drop surface dewpoints down into the upper 60s and
limit SBCAPE a bit, so despite what should be good heating (after
the morning stratus burns off), the lowest pops should be in our far
W. In the E, within higher PW and higher surface dewpoints, isolated
to scattered storms remain possible in the afternoon. Recent CAM
runs are less enthusiastic, with scant coverage, due perhaps in part
to large-scale post-TC subsidence. Will hold onto scattered showers
and storms in the afternoon into early evening here, but there is a
chance for lesser coverage in later forecasts. Expect highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, followed by lows in the low-mid 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1233 PM Sunday...

Expect a return to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday after a surface trough sets up across the central portion of
North Carolina. Tuesday is also expected to have the least cloud
cover of any day this week, which will help it to be the warmest day
of the week - widespread low to mid 90s are in the forecast for
temperatures and it is the primary day that may reach heat advisory
criteria of 105 degrees. The entire forecast area is under a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday,
primarily due to the inverted-V soundings which could mix stronger
wind down to the surface. The storms will have plenty of instability
to work with, although deep level shear will be weak and will have a
harder time organizing thunderstorms.

As an upper trough develops over the eastern half of the United
States for the second half of the week, this will increase the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, Thursday, and
Friday. This should result in a slight reduction of temperatures -
although most places will still reach the low 90s on Wednesday and
highs in the upper 80s will be more typical on Thursday and Friday
with the increased cloud cover. Once the trough axis moves farther
east and gets closer to the Atlantic coastline over the weekend,
coverage of showers and thunderstorms should decrease somewhat,
returning more to scattered showers/storms each afternoon, with a
slight increase in highs back into the low 90s. While some upper 60s
are possible for overnight lows, most locations will not fall out of
the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

Adverse aviation conditions will dominate at all terminals across
central NC through much of tonight, with SW-to-NE improvement Mon
morning. What is now TD Chantal centered just S of LBT will continue
to track slowly to the NNE and NE through central NC through
tonight, while continuing to weaken to a remnant low. Numerous to
widespread showers, and isolated storms, will bring MVFR to IFR
conditions (both cigs and vsbys) as the storm center tracks through,
with the IFR conditions most likely where the rain is heaviest. Wind
concerns are now lower as the storm weakens, although sporadic
surface gusts up to 15-20 kts are possible anywhere, with isolated
up to 20-35 kts in and near the heavier showers and isolated storms,
mostly this afternoon through early evening. Once the low center
tracks NE of central NC early Mon morning, leaving behind a weak
trough down through the area, cigs and vsbys will quickly trend to
VFR, with just mid and high clouds over the area and light surface
winds through the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 18z Mon, a few showers and storms are possible with
heating Mon from mid afternoon to early evening, mainly at RWI/FAY.
Additional rounds of scattered storms are expected each afternoon
through mid evening Tue-Fri as a weak upper trough holds to our
west, and early-morning areas of sub-VFR fog and stratus are
possible each day Wed-Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007-008-021>025-038>042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Hartfield