Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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879 FXUS65 KPUB 180930 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 330 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot again most of plains today, HEAT Advisories in effect TODAY. - Cooling outflow boundary near certain today (90%) pushing across the Pikes Peak Region during the ~2 to ~3 pm time period; good chance (~60%) of storms mid/late afternoon PPR (Isolated storms possible earlier). - Strong outflow winds likely with any thunderstorms later today, especially over the plains. - Shower and thunderstorm chances greatly increase on Monday, with some strong to severe storms possible. - Daily showers and storms continue through the rest of this week. Temperatures will warm a bit. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Currently... Sat pix imgy at 2 AM was showing mostly clear skies over a majority of the forecast area. The only exception was along the CONTDVD region were skies were mostly cloudy and showers over the west slope were steadily decreasing. Ambient temps at 2 am were still very warm over the lower elevations with 70s to lower 80s noted. Valleys and mtns were much cooler with readings in teh 50s and 60s. Next 24 hours... It will be hot once again today, but relief is on the way. The overall general pattern shows a mid level ridge axis stretching from eastern MT southward to eastern NM. just west of this ridge axis guidance was showing an area of higher precipitable water values, and this area of mid level moisture will push east today over the region associated with a weak disturbance moving through the mid level flow. This system will allow an area of low pressure to develop over NW KS by early afternoon. Areas west through south of this low will be quite warm and hot, with westerly sfc winds and temps in the 90s to L100s. North of this feature, dwpts were quite high and temps were noticeably cooler. By early to mid afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and push east. There is a good chance that showers/stormy may develop as early as 1-2 pm over the Teller county region and push east, and an outflow boundary is likely going to push across the El Paso county region during the mid afternoon time period. Given all of the outdoor activities occurring over Pikes Peak Region (PPR) today, this outflow will bring cooling relief to the PPR area. Confidence in this boundary is very high, but the exact timing is still somewhat uncertain. This boundary will act as a double edge sword in that it will bring cooler air to the area during the mid day time period, but it may also bring STRONG GUSTY WINDS to the PPR. Reviewing high res ensemble guidance (HREF), it appears the best timing of the boundary moving across the greater COS area will be around the 2-3 pm time period. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible around the time of the boundary pushing across. I should note that _ALL_ SPC HREF members at 2 pm show echoes of varying intensity over the El paso county region; these echoes intensify over the PPR as the afternoon progresses. For the rest of the plains, the outflow will push southeastward and should move across the Pueblo area during the 4-6 pm time frame and reach the La Junta area around 6-7 pm, and will continue across the plains the rest of this evening. This boundary will initiate storms as it moves east this late afternoon and into the evening hours. Some of these storms will be strong and one or two may be severe, with winds being the main concern. The best chance for the stronger storms will be over the far eastern plains, especially across the greater Kiowa county region. Temps in the COS area will likely reach the U80s to L90s once again, but the impacts may be less as more clouds are expected today and they will form relatively early in the afternoon (HREF aviation data shows a good chance of mid level deck forming during the 1-2 pm time period). The boundary pushing across will significantly cool the temps down once it pushes across the region. For the rest of the plains along the lowe Ark Rvr valley, temps around 100 to 104 are likely before the cooling outflow boundary pushes across. There will be a chance of some precip over a good part of the plains this evening, however the far southeast plains will likely remain dry. As for the mountains today into this evening...the overall best chance of rain will be across the CONTDVD region and extending east into the greater Fremont county region and into the higher elevations of the PPR. Storms elsewhere across the higher terrain will be more scattered && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 329 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The upper-level ridge will remain firmly in place through most of this week, slowly shifting eastwards. Along with the slight shift in the upper pattern, ample monsoon moisture will move into our area, with PWATs far above normal ranges on Monday. This, coupled with moist post-frontal upslope over the plains, as well as a shortwave disturbance passing by aloft, will all result in widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Current model consensus is for convection to fire along the mountains mid-late afternoon before pushing east-southeast. Over the plains, 30+ knots of bulk shear and around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will allow for the intensification of thunderstorms, with several deterministic models resolving a large convective cluster. Storms will move over I-25 and push southeast fairly quickly, and could give us a variety of impacts. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be our primary concerns due to the high amounts of available moisture and the widespread coverage of convection. However, some stronger storms could produce large hail and damaging winds as well, especially with that much CAPE and shear in play. Moisture will remain in place for Tuesday, leading to another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, while a vast majority of the coverage will be over the higher terrain, some storms may drift east onto the I-25 corridor once again. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over vulnerable areas will be our main concerns once again. Over the far eastern plains, models have very limited precipitation coverage, with soundings showing a decent cap in place. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid-80s to low-90s across most the CWA. The upper-level high will start to shift east through the rest of the work week, with flow over our region becoming more southwesterly. Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue, with most of the moisture being confined to the Continental Divide. At the same time, high temperatures will warm a few degrees, with some areas over the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees. Model solutions start to diverge as we approach next weekend, but hint at an upper-level low moving onto the west coast, which could bring a more significant shift to our general pattern closer to the end of this long-term forecast period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours. There will be increasing moisture across the area, with showers and thunderstorms firing over the mountains before moving onto the plains and I-25 corridor. Coverage of storms will slowly increase into early this evening, with VCSH at all three TAF sites for now until confidence in thunderstorm coverage and timing increases. Main concern for showers and storms today will be gusty and erratic outflow winds. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ084>086. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...HODANISH